Small Craft Advisory 104, NWS Fairbanks, AK

332 
FZAK52 PAFG 201205
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
405 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-210145-
405 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 999 MB LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A 1003 MB AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR BARROW
TONIGHT. A 997 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. A 984 MB LOW SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.

$$

PKZ200-210145-
NORTON SOUND-
405 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-210145-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
405 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-210145-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
405 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-210145-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
405 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

CC/JM SEP 12

084 
FZAK52 PAFG 202156
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-211230-
156 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1002 MB LOW CENTER NEAR KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL MOVE NORTH AND
DISSIPATE. A 1020 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA FRIDAY. A 980 MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 986 MB
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. 

$$

PKZ200-211230-
NORTON SOUND-
156 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-211230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
156 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-211230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
156 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-211230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
156 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SDB/MAK SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
434 AM AKDT WED SEP 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS LIKELY AN UNDERSTATEMENT. THE POTENTIAL APPEARS
HIGH FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IN AREAS IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE TODAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG CHINOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE BASIC PATTERN OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND RIDGING IN WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN TACT.

SFC...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NORTH PAC LOWS IS JUST SOUTH OF THE AK
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH TODAY AND INTO
THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT UP TO THE BEAUFORT
SEA COAST TONIGHT.  THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOW AS
IT LIFTS INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS/UKMET.

INTERIOR...THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE FROM LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A VERY STRONG CHINOOK MORE TYPICAL OF WINTER WILL
OCCUR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT THAT WINDS OF 80 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT AROUND THE 700 MB
LEVEL ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WITH WINDS OF 100 KNOTS OR MORE AT
20 THOUSAND FT OR ROUGHLY THE SUMMIT OF DENALI. THE 12Z PAFA
SOUNDING HAD A 150 KT JET AT 250 MB WHICH IS NOT SEEN ALL THAT
FREQUENTLY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FIRST IN THE WEST AND SPREAD
RAPIDLY EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 80 MPH AT WINDY PASS AND 70 MPH AT DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE
PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF. AREAS IN ZONE 224 FROM ABOUT THE
ROBERTSON RIVER BRIDGE TO TANACROSS WILL ALSO LIKELY EXPERIENCE
SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF AT
LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WIND POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN THE
PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AS A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

NORTH SLOPE...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR A
PERIOD OF STRONG WIND ALONG THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST
THURSDAY.  THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND UKMET
HAVING A WEAK LOW AND THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVING A MUCH DEEPER LOW.
THE GLOBAL MODEL EVEN HAS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE GFS OR UKMET WITH A
986 MB LOW BY 00Z FRIDAY.  GIVEN THE INFLUX OF WARM SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND A STRONG BAROCLINICITY WOULD FAVOR A STRONGER
SOLUTION.  TO ILLUSTRATE THIS POINT THE NAM MOST HAS SUSTAINED WINDS
AS HIGH AS 51 KTS AT BARTER ISLAND WHILE THE GFS MOS DOES NOT HAVE
WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS. GIVEN THAT THE PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SHOULD
LAST FOR 12 HOURS OR LESS THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT HIGH BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE SURF COULD BUILD UP QUITE RAPIDLY
DURING THE DAY AND PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
WATER OVER THE EAST END OF THE RUNWAY.  FOR NOW WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...BUT WOULD FAVOR A
STRONGER SOLUTION.

WEST COAST...SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE FROM NEAR 35N
170W THAT IS LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN MAINLAND.  THE NEXT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH FROM THE  KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WEATHER DRIES OUT SOME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER NORTH
PAC LOW WORKS UP THE WEST COAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME RISES LIKELY ON RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE ALASKA RANGE
AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220 & PKZ245.

&&

CB SEP 12