Gale Warning 85, NWS Fairbanks, AK

724 
FZAK51 PAFG 102330
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-111215-
230 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 MB LOW NEAR BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 500 NM E OF BANKS 
ISLAND BY SUN MORNING DEEPENING TO 990 MB. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ225-111215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
230 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-111215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
230 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-111215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
230 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-111215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
230 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-111215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
230 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

MK/CC NOV 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE 984 MB LOW WEST OF COLD BAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
MINOR OUT TONIGHT AS A 990 MB LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA THOUGH...AND COLDER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER IN OVER
THAT AREA. THE MODELS HAVE A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY
IN ZONES 214/215/227 AND SOUTHERN 216 THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THAT SEEMS A BIT COUNTER INTUITIVE...ONE USUALLY EXPECTS FREEZING
RAIN TO END WITH THE WARM ADVECTION (THOUGH NOT FREEZING DRIZZLE).
IN THIS CASE...THE COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN QUITE MODEST...THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH THAT
WE'RE STUCK WITH THE FREEZING RAIN FOR A WHILE. AT LEAST THE
AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY ON WILL BE SLIM.

A MUCH MORE POWERFUL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BERING
SEA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MONDAY NIGHT...CROSSING THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN NEAR ADAK. EXPECT STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
FROM THIS ONE OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM 211 SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AGAIN IN ZONES 214 AND
215. MAYBE SOME SURF PROBLEMS ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AS WELL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...POTENTIAL HEAVY SURF ON
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TUESDAY...BUT NOT MUCH POTENTIAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ227.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

DJH NOV 12