Gale Warning 73, NWS Fairbanks, AK

065 
FZAK51 PAFG 092243
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
243 PM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-101345-
243 PM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM BARROW NORTHEAST WILL MOVE EAST OF
DEMARCATION POINT TUE NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA TUE AND PERSIST INTO
WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THU.

$$

PKZ225-101345-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
243 PM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-101345-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
243 PM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-101345-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
243 PM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-101345-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
243 PM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-101345-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
243 PM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

JK OCT 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
COLDER AIR FROM THE ARCTIC IS CONTINUING TO FLOW DOWN OVER THE
REALM...AND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
COLDER AND LARGELY CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO COME WITH THIS.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE ARCTIC. GIVEN A 400 TO 500 MILE
STRETCH OF OPEN WATER NORTH OF THE ALASKAN ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE FOR SOME TIME.

RIVERS IN NORTHERN ALASKA ARE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND ARE
GENERALLY LEVEL OR GRADUALLY DECLINING. FREEZEUP IS IN PROGRESS IN
NORTHERN INTERIOR RIVERS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

SURF WILL DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST FROM
CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO BERING STRAIT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTER
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AREA INCLUDES SHISHMAREF.

THE WINDS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BE 20 TO 35 MPH. THIS WIND
FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST...OVER AN ICE FREE FETCH OF 500
MILES. THIS IS AN UNUSUALLY LONG FETCH FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE
INFLUX OF COLD AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM OPEN WATER WILL
RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH A CONSIDERABLY GREATER GUST
FACTOR THAN WOULD COME WITH AN INFLOW OF WARM AIR.

THE UPSHOT IS EXPECTED TO BE A FULLY DEVELOPED SEA IN THE FETCH. A
FULLY DEVELOPED SEA IS A COMBINATION OF WAVES AND SWELL THAT REACH
THE MAXIMUM POSSIBLE HEIGHT FOR THE SPEED OF THE WIND. IN THIS
CASE...WITH A WIND OF 25 MPH OVER A 500 MILE FETCH OVER A 36 HOUR
SPAN OF TIME...THE HEIGHT OF WAVES IN A FULLY DEVELOPED SEA WOULD
BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET IN THE OPEN OCEAN. SUCH INCOMING WAVES
LOSE ENERGY AS THEY REACH RELATIVELY SHALLOW WATER NEAR SHORE. THE
SURF THEN COMING ASHORE IN THIS CASE WOULD BE SOMETHING FROM 5 TO
10 FEET HIGH...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.

THE WIND FLOW PATTERN IN THIS CASE WILL NOT BRING UP TIDES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. THIS IS TO SAY THAT A STORM SURGE...A WIND INDUCED
RISE IN SEA LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM
HERE. IF THE WINDS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...THE
PROBLEM WOULD BE BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

TF OCT 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
609 AM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

AKZ222-091615-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
609 AM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

...SLIPPERY ROADS THIS MORNING...

TEMPERATURES ARE NOW JUST BELOW FREEZING AND ARE CAUSING ICY
SPOTS ON THE WET SIDEWALKS AND ROADS THIS MORNING IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA.
BRIDGES ARE ESPECIALLY SLIPPERY. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING.