Gale Warning 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

979 
FZAK52 PAFG 281020
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 AM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-290015-
220 AM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR ST PAUL ISLAND WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO
THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-290015-
NORTON SOUND-
220 AM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN
THE MORNING. SNOW AFTER NOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-290015-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
220 AM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-290015-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
220 AM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-290015-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
220 AM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

JK/TF MAR 12

693 
FZAK52 PAFG 282247
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-291400-
247 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR ST GEORGE ISLAND WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RUSSIAN
ARCTIC WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
WITH ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-291400-
NORTON SOUND-
247 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-291400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
247 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-291400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
247 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-291400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
247 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

SDB/JAM MAR 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
452 AM AKDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS WEATHER PATTERN IN NORTHERN ALASKA IS MOSTLY QUIET AND
BENIGN. ONLY THE NORTHWEST COASTAL ZONES...WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO
HAVE LOW WIND CHILLS...AND THE BRISK WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST MARINE
AREAS...ARE OF NOTE. IN BERING STRAIT...THE WINDS AT TIN CITY ARE
GUSTING TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FOCUSED THERE.

THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME ENERGY IS MOVING NORTHWARD TO
THE BERING SEA COAST OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE WINDS THERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER NORTON
SOUND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LOW IS TRANSFERRED NORTHWARD TO THE CHUKCHI
SEA COAST. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN
CHANNELED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE STARTING
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE GFS AND NAM COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AT WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. BRISK NORTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LISBURNE DOWN
PAST SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

ALL OF THE COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS FORECAST THE NORTH
PACIFIC STORM TRACK TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 55 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. FOR THIS COMING SUNDAY NIGHT / APRIL 1
- 2 / THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A LARGE LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM
THE PACIFIC TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS
ONLY WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA NEXT WEEK. THE BEST
GUESS WOULD BE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS...NEITHER ONE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD UP OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TO HOLD THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
RECEDE INTO NORTHWEST CANADA AND TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND ON SUNDAY. THE GFS THEN
FORECASTS THE NORTHWEST CANADA HIGH ALOFT TO REBUILD OVER THE
YUKON AND THE ALASKA INTERIOR.

THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTON SOUND COASTAL ZONES...AND ONLY SOME IN THOSE
ZONES. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS THE EAST
SIDE OF THE NULATO HILLS...WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM EASTERLY
UP SLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODERATE.
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS WELL AS THE ARCTIC...WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK.

THIS MORNINGS POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS
EXITING THE BROOKS RANGE EAST OF ARCTIC VILLAGE...AND A SMALL DECK
OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE YUKON FLATS / IT CLEARED OUT AT FORT
YUKON JUST BEFORE 3 AM AKDT. / LAYERED FRONTAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLAND LOW OCCLUDED FRONT ARE ADVANCING NORTHWARD...AND
COVER ALL OF THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY...THE YUKON DELTA...AND A GOOD
PART OF NORTON SOUND. INFRARED SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE ARE FROM -40C TO -45C. ON
THE ARCTIC COASTAL PLAIN THE TEMPERATURES ARE FROM -35C TO -40C.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ201.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

TF MAR 12