Gale Warning 107, NWS Fairbanks, AK

652 
FZAK52 PAFG 311048
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
148 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-010030-
148 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 979 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN INTO A
TROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ200-010030-
NORTON SOUND-
148 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SE. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-010030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
148 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-010030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
148 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-010030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
148 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RF/SDB DEC 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
458 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UPPER LOW CENTER
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
NEAR DALL POINT BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THROUGH MON. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO BRISTOL BAY TUE MORNING...MOVING TO
SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WEAKENING BY WED AFTERNOON.
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TUE.

NAM12 CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE WINDS ALOFT 700 MB MAXING OUT AS
HIGH AS 75-80 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH EXPECTED IN ALASKA
RANGE PASSES. WINDS ALOFT WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG. OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...WINDS ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT OF CHANNELED AREAS
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE FROM NORTHWEST OF TOK TO THE DOT LAKE AREA.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS ISSUED FOR THIS SECTION OF ZONE 224. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR ZONES 225-226 AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE
223 CONTINUE IN EFFECT.

SURFACE LOW CENTER NOW ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND IS AT OR NEAR ITS LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE...950-955 MB...AND
WILL FILL RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST
TOWARDS DALL POINT. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER
IN OUR FORECAST AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR ZONES WILL BE NO MORE THAN 1 OR 2 INCHES. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
GALES WITH LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL REMAIN DRY IN AN EASTERLY WIND REGIME.

EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE CONTINUATION OF A MAINLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN...ALTHOUGH NOT AS ENERGETIC...OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEAN SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOW 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY POSITIVE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF 6-9C OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE...WITH SMALLER POSITIVE ANOMALIES TO THE NORTH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

RF DEC 12