Gale Warning 104, NWS Fairbanks, AK

838 
FZAK52 PAFG 271152
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-280300-
252 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 961 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO INTO BRISTOL BAY
THIS EVENING AT 977 MB AND THEN CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST AND
DISSIPATE. A 972 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A 960 MB LOW THEN
CONTINUE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS
THEN DISSIPATES EARLY MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST FROM A 1038 MB HIGH
NEAR 77N 170E.

$$

PKZ200-280300-
NORTON SOUND-
252 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-280300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
252 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-280300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
252 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-280300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
252 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

SDB/RF DEC 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 PM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS DEVELOPING TO BRING SEVERAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS NORTH OVER THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL ALLOW THE ENERGY FROM STORMS
MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TO BE PUSHED NORTH OVER
THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL SPLIT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
SEWARD PENINSULA EARLY THU AM BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AND
HELP THE OVERALL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL STRETCH FROM THE YUKON DELTA
TO ANCHORAGE 3PM SAT AND PROVIDE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...1008 MB LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND DISSIPATING
BY 3PM THU. 961 MB LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND SPLIT INTO TWO LOWS...ONE NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND ANOTHER OVER
BRISTOL BAY AT 9AM THU...THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DRIFT
NORTHWEST AND THE LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST WITH BOTH
DISSIPATING BY 3AM FRI. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN...DISSIPATING NEAR THE BERING STRAIT TO
MCGRATH 6PM THU. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER WESTERN AK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT WEAKEN AND DISSIPATED BY 3AM SAT. A 967 MB LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH TO BRISTOL BAY 3AM SAT AND TO 200 MILES SW OF NOME
3PM SAT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
BETHEL TO KODIAK AT 3AM SAT AND CONTINUE NORTH TO EXTEND FROM
EMMONAK TO UNALAKLEET TO FAIRBANKS AT 3PM SAT.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN SHORT TERM AND IN MEDIUM TERM.

NORTH SLOPE...WITH THE MOVEMENT NORTH OF THE FIRST WEATHER
FRONT...NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD WILL INCREASE THU.
WINDS OVER FAR EAST WILL TURN FROM WEST TO EAST BY THU NIGHT AND
THEN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SAT WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY.

WESTERN ALASKA...SOME SNOW MOVING OVER ZONES 214 AND 215 TONIGHT
AND 213 THU WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION. MUCH LESS SNOW
EXPECTED OVER 212 AND 211. NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP WITH SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WITH INCOMING WEAKENING WARM FRONT
FRI...SPOTTY SNOW SPREADING NORTH TO ARCTIC CIRCLE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND SOMEWHAT INTO THE INTERIOR ZONES. AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS
THAN 2 INCHES. ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
SPREAD NORTH OVER ALL AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FAVORING SOUTHERN SLOPES...TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH BUT
MAY HAVE A NEED FOR WATCHES DUE TO SNOW AND/OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

INTERIOR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL DRIFT
EAST LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SO EXPECT TANANA VALLEY JET EVIDENT
AT DELTA AND NENANA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER AREA WITH SOME THINNING
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH AK RANGE
PASSES FRI NIGHT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SAT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JL DEC 12