Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

912 
WGAK69 PAFG 082149
FFAAFG

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
149 PM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

.A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AIR MASS IS UNUSUALLY MOIST...AND THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

AKZ221-090800-
/O.CON.PAFG.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120609T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
INCLUDING...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD
149 PM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE CENTRAL INTERIOR

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
  THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
  MORE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WITH
  FREQUENT SHOWERS.

* FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

AKZ225-090800-
/O.CON.PAFG.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120609T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
149 PM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* DENALI

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
  THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
  MORE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WITH
  FREQUENT SHOWERS.

* FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS THIS
  AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

AKZ226-090800-
/O.CON.PAFG.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120609T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
149 PM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
  THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
  MORE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WITH
  FREQUENT SHOWERS.

* FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

586 
WGAK69 PAFG 090755
FFAAFG

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1155 PM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

AKZ221-225-226-090900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120609T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-DENALI-EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD...
HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...KANTISHNA...
MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...TRIMS CAMP...
EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
1155 PM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DENALI...THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...AND 
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS
DIMINISHED.  SOME AREAS IN BETWEEN RAIN GAGES LIKELY RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FRIDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE...
SO SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE AREA MAY CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH ON SATURDAY.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1047 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...TODAYS FORECAST CYCLE BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH
CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH A SMOOTH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WEAKLY DEFINED
UPPER HIGH NE OF WRANGEL ISLAND BUILDS A FEW DECAMETERS TO BECOME
THE MAIN HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 400 NM N OF BARROW BY SAT AFTN...WITH
A RIDGE SWD TO THE BROOKS RANGE THEN ESE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY.
E TO SE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE NRN AK
MAINLAND.

SURFACE...1040 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 600 NM OF PRUDHOE BAY
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SEWD...TO ABOUT 400 NM N OF DEMARCATION POINT
BY SAT AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING TO 1036 MB. BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL DEEPEN BY 4-6 MB FRI...THEN WEAKEN SOME
SAT.

ARCTIC COAST...EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FOG...MAINLY AT NIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING. OVER THE INLAND FLATS...STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AT NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY EVAPORATE DURING THE MORNING...TO
BE MOSTLY GONE BY MID DAY. WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE GRADUALLY BEGINNING
FRI AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS ERN AKZ210-ERN AKZ212-
ERN AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ227. UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE
AREA...WEAKENING SHORT WAVE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER DYNAMICS TO BOOST CONVECTION.

FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALOFT TO PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DEEPENING
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS EXTREME SRN AKZ219-SRN AKZ220-
AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227-ERN AKZ215.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THESE AREAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE RANGE
OF 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER INTO THE
INTERIOR EXPECTED...MOS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AT SOME INTERIOR
SITES ON FRI LOOK TOO HIGH.

SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA. RIBBON OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTHERN AKZ224 WESTWARD TO THE SEWARD PEN AND LOWER KOBUK VALLEY.
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING BUT WEAKENING SOME. ISOLATED
TSTMS AKZ210-INLAND AREAS AKZ209-SERN AKZ208-SRN AKZ217-NRN AKZ216-
AKZ219-SRN AKZ220-MOST OF AKZ221-AKZ222-CENTRAL AND NRN AKZ224.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THIS BAND OF UNSTABLE AIR EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY 1.0-1.1 INCHES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES AT WEST COAST SITES ADJACENT TO THE WATER WILL BE
STRONGLY CONTROLLED BY LOCAL WIND FLOW...IN AREAS WHERE ONSHORE
FLOW IS PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN MOS
FORECASTS. IN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW AREAS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN MOS FORECASTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOWER HEIGHTS AND A COOLER TEMPERATURE
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AK MAINLAND EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SUN...BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. ABSENCE OF STRONG RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS...BUT
CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL IN AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220 WHERE
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR IN FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCAL SMALL STREAM FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT ARE HIT BY MULTIPLE STORMS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS...
WHILE LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THEIR LIFE CYCLE...
WILL PROBABLY NOT DROP ENOUGH RAIN IN ANY ONE AREA TO CAUSE
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. NEVERTHELESS...RAIN GAGE READINGS SHOULD
BE MONITORED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF JUN 12