Brisk Wind Advisory 98, NWS Fairbanks, AK

630 
FZAK52 PAFG 312210
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 PM AKDT SAT MAR 31 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-011315-
210 PM AKDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA WITH A RIDGE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE WHILE LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA.

$$

PKZ200-011315-
NORTON SOUND-
210 PM AKDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-011315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
210 PM AKDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-011315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
210 PM AKDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-011315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
210 PM AKDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CC/RT MAR 12

412 
FZAK52 PAFG 011145
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
345 AM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-020245-
345 AM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1035 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL SIBERIA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. A BROAD AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE AROUND A 989 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-020245-
NORTON SOUND-
345 AM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. LOCAL GUSTS 30 KT NEAR SHORE.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-020245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
345 AM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT WEST OF SLEDGE ISLAND WITH
BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT WEST OF SLEDGE ISLAND
WITH BLOWING SNOW.
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-020245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
345 AM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT W WINDS 20 KT SOUTH OF
CAPE ESPENBERG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT W WINDS 15 KT SOUTH OF
CAPE ESPENBERG.
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-020245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
345 AM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

SDB/DJH APR 12

483 
FZAK52 PAFG 012231
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
231 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-021345-
231 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1035 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL SIBERIA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND A 989 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA MON. A WEAKENING
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO SOUTH AND WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ200-021345-
NORTON SOUND-
231 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-021345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
231 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-021345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
231 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-021345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
231 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CC/RT APR 12

744 
FZAK52 PAFG 021120
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
320 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-030200-
320 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED 200 NM N OF BARROW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND A 958
MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND WHILE
THE LOW WEAKENS TO 974 BY LATE MON NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA MON. A
WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO SOUTH AND WEST OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-030200-
NORTON SOUND-
320 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. LOCAL GUSTS 25 KT NEAR SHORE.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT.
.TUE...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-030200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
320 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-030200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
320 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT W WINDS 15 KT
SOUTH OF CAPE ESPENBERG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.TUE...MAINLY W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-030200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
320 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CF/DJH APR 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 AM AKDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM BUT NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT. THE GFS MAY BE MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY. AT LEAST THE
GFS DOES PAINT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR...WHICH IS OCCURRING PRESENTLY ACCORDING TO THE
RADAR. COLD ADVECTION...ALBEIT NOT SCREAMING IN BUT MORE LIKE
FILTERING IN IS UNDER WAY NOW. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY
NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 80 DEGREES NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH POLE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TO THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL
SHARPEN THE TROUGH TO DRIVE THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY STRONG
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
A LITTLE TO PUT TO BED THE ADVISORIES BY THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE NCEP RMOPS HAVE BELOW AVERAGE RELATIVE
MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH
IN PART IS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ALOFT NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS MON NIGHT WITH A NORTH
PAC RIDGE THAT BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND TUE-WED AND IS FOLLOWED BY A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE INTER AND INTRA MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IN OVERALL BETTER AGREEMENT THEN THE ECMWF WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THE SFC WITH THE GFS TAKING A MODERATELY
DEEP SFC LOW NORTH ALONG THE YK DELTA COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW 600 MILES TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE ARE A LOT OF POSSIBILITIES AND LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. IN GENERAL USED A LARGE PART OF THE HPC
GUIDANCE...BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ213.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF MAR 12