Brisk Wind Advisory 96, NWS Fairbanks, AK

058 
FZAK52 PAFG 290440 AAA
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
840 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

UPDATED ZONES 210 AND 220

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-291515-
840 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR ST GEORGE ISLAND WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RUSSIAN
ARCTIC WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
WITH ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-291515-
NORTON SOUND-
840 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-291515-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
840 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.THU...N WINDS 35 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-291515-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
840 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.MON...E WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-291515-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
840 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

JB MAR 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
500 AM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAS HARDLY
MOVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS -- AS EXPECTED. THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW INCREASED SOME ON TUESDAY AND HENCE THE NORTHERLY GALES
DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHWEST COAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING SINCE YESTERDAY /TUESDAY / EVENING.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT AHEAD OF THE PRIBILOF ISLAND LOW HAS BROUGHT
SOME SNOW TO THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY...THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY...THE YUKON DELTA...THE NORTON SOUND COAST AND THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...ONLY AN INCH OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY. AS THE
OCCLUSION WEAKENS TONIGHT THE SNOW IN THE WEST WILL END.

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER CHUKOTKA AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CAPE
LISBURNE DOWN OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND THE WESTERN SEWARD
PENINSULA FOR SOME TIME...PROBABLY THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

THE NAM AND GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE SIMILAR
PROJECTIONS WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE OUTPUT FROM YESTERDAYS
RUNS. BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE PRIBILOF ISLAND LOW TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AND TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT.

ALSO...BOTH MODELS FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA TO BUILD
INTO THE ALASKAN INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND THE BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION ALOFT AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME VERY WEAK TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH
THIS FRIDAY.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT NORTH OF ALASKA...NEAR 80
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE...IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO THE
ALASKA ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS MODEL FORECASTS A STRONG TROUGH ALOFT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE ALASKAN ARCTIC AND THE BROOKS RANGE. THIS COULD BRING SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE ALASKAN ARCTIC OVER THIS WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS A MUCH STRONGER LOW ALOFT
TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER IN THE PROJECTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTS STARTING WITH THIS SATURDAY
IS DEFINITELY GREATER THAN USUAL.

HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. IF THIS IS CLOSE TO THE REAL OUTCOME...MUCH OF THE
REALM WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND RISING TEMPERATURES IN
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THIS MORNINGS GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTH
PACIFIC STORM TRACK FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND. THE
POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND THE ARCTIC
SLOPE. LAYERED FRONTAL CLOUDS COVER THE WEST HALF OF THE INTERIOR.
LOWER LAYERED CLOUDS -- TO THE WEST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT -- COVER
THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEA COASTS.

THE MAJOR LEADS IN THE CHUKCHI SEA ICE OFFSHORE THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST HAVE GOOD DEFINITION AND HAVE BEEN EASY TO FOLLOW AS THEY
MOVE. THE BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE MOVED THE ICE SOUTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 15 MILES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ201.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

TF MAR 12