Brisk Wind Advisory 57, NWS Fairbanks, AK

430 
FZAK52 PAFG 121200
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130300-
300 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SIBERIA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH MON.
A 978 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND
BY LATE SUN NIGHT WEAKENING TO 982 MB.

$$

PKZ200-130300-
NORTON SOUND-
300 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-130300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
300 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-130300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
300 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-130300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
300 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

CF/JK FEB 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1149 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
965 MB LOW CROSSING THE AK PEN WILL CURVE NWD AND WWD...FILLING
TO AROUND 978 MB NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SUN PM. THE NEXT SFC
LOW IN THE SERIES WILL BE IN ITS WEAKENING STAGES AS IT MOVES INTO
BRISTOL BAY LATE SUN NIGHT...WKNG FURTHER TO AROUND 990 MB OVER
NORTON SOUND BY MON PM. THESE DECAYING SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR.

ALOFT...A PROGRESSIVE S TO SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVER NRN AK...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL TRANSIT NWD ACROSS THE NRN AK MAINLAND
SUN...WITH ANOTHER CROSSING NRN AK MON. A THIRD SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NWD ACROSS NRN AK MON NIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND BROOKS
RANGE WITH THESE FEATURES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

THIS FLOW PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE OF IN THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS INCREASE. THUS THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS FOR DAYS 7-8. TEMPERATURES S OF THE
BROOKS RANGE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OFF
THE WEEK...THEN SAG DOWN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

RF FEB 12