Brisk Wind Advisory 36, NWS Fairbanks, AK

528 
FZAK52 PAFG 012307
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
207 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-021415-
207 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1014 MB HIGH OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A 985 MB LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 944 MB LOW
250 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING WEAKENING TO 961 MB.

$$

PKZ200-021415-
NORTON SOUND-
207 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-021415-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
207 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-021415-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
207 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-021415-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
207 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

JK/CC FEB 12

815 
FZAK52 PAFG 021027
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
127 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-030130-
127 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1010 MB HIGH OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A 985 MB LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE. A 968 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
WEAKEN TO 990 MB EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-030130-
NORTON SOUND-
127 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-030130-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
127 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 40 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-030130-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
127 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-030130-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
127 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RL/RF FEB 12

976 
FZAK52 PAFG 022302
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
202 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-031230-
202 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 990 MB LOW NEAR KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE TO POINT HOPE AS A 998 MB
LOW BY 3AM FRI AND TO 100 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT HOPE AS A 998 MB
LOW BY 3PM FRI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW
WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA BY 3PM FRI.
A LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AS A
VERY STRONG LOW ON SAT.

$$

PKZ200-031230-
NORTON SOUND-
202 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-031230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
202 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT DECREASING. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-031230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
202 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-031230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
202 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WINDS 40 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

FEB 12

032 
FZAK52 PAFG 031129
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-040030-
229 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 MB LOW JUST WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO 150 MILES 
EAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4 AM SAT AS A 1003 MB LOW. A STRONG
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA SAT.

$$

PKZ200-040030-
NORTON SOUND-
229 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 5 KT BECOMING E 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT.
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 45 KT DECREASING TO 35 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-040030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
229 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO NE
40 KT FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND S AND W. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT...NE WINDS 45 KT...EXCEPT SE 45 KT OVER AREAS S AND
E OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT...EXCEPT SE 40 KT OVER AREAS
S AND E OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-040030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
229 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-040030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
229 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE.
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

RF FEB 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AS THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY BEGINS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE
WILL GET UNDERWAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE
PATTERN CHANGE IS COMPLETE.  A DEEP UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NW COAST
OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY ELONGATE OUT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
SPLIT INTO TWO LOW CENTERS.  ONE LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST AND
ENDS UP IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AS THE
SECOND CENTER ENDS UP ON THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA.  A DEEP NORTH PAC
LOW THAT MOVES TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WED HELPS TO BUILD UP A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

SFC...A 984 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN TODAY WITH A WEAK SECONDARY LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
WRANGELL ISLANDS THAT MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES BY WED.  A DEEP
945-950 MB LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA WED AND MOVES UP
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AK ON THURSDAY.  A RIDGE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL SETTLE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND FAR EASTERN RUSSIA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

INTERIOR...STILL QUITE COLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 50 TO 60 BELOW RANGE.
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR/AK RANGE VALLEYS TONIGHT FOR ONE LAST REAL COLD NIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW WILL BE MUCH DEEPER AND WILL PUSH A MUCH MILDER AIR
MASS ALOFT ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE INTERIOR BY LATE WED INTO
THUR ALONG WITH SOME SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AT
FIRST. TEMPS AT FAIRBANKS HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT GETTING ABOVE ZERO
ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY 20S (ABOVE) ON THE
HILLS.

NORTH SLOPE...THE NORTH SLOPE WILL REMAIN IN THE ICE BOX FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO EASILY
SUPPORT 40 TO 50 BELOW TEMPS AND POTENTIALLY AS COLD AS 65 BELOW FOR
INLAND VALLEYS. THE WIND REGIME REMAINS LIGHT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS SO AT LEAST NO WIND CHILL ISSUES. POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
CHILL ISSUES BY WED NIGHT OR THUR AS THE NORTH PAC LOW MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...BUT WITH NO OFFSHORE ARCTIC HIGH THE WIND
SPEEDS LOOK ONLY MARGINAL FOR WIND CHILL ISSUES.

WEST COAST...COLD AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST AK THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.  SOME MODERATION INLAND AREAS SUCH AS THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY THU ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW WITH THE INCOMING
LOW.  THE COLD AIR LIKELY SLOSHES BACK IN FOR A DAY OR TWO IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE ALOFT...BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
MODERATION TAKES PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME LOW WIND CHILLS IN ZONES 212 AND 213 214 AND 215 AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL FOR ZONES 207 AND
210...211 FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU.

IN THE MID-RANGE...MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AS
TROF ALOFT AMPLIFIES THU-FRI ALONG ABOUT 175W AND RIDGE BUILDS OVR
WRN NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS
OF HOW THE ATMOSPHERE GETS THERE..WITH ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR 500 MB
HEIGHTS HIGHER OVR THE WEEKEND THAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOSED LOW
ALOFT VCNTY BERING STRAIT FRI PM WILL BE KICKED OUT WITH RIDGE
BUILDING OVER SRN MAINLAND ALASKA OVR THE WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND A
MILD PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THOUGH ESPECIALLY OVR THE
INTERIOR THIS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG INVERSION SITUATION.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO LIFT UP ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME SNOW
OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE CFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE WARM ANOMALIES FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN ON DAYS 6-10 AND 8-14...WITH WARM ANOMALIES NOW ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREAS ON WEEKS 2 AND 3. ONCE THE PATTERN CHANGES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PERHAPS A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  OF COURSE...THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. SHOULD A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT SETTLE OVER
THE MAINLAND STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WOULD MAKE FOR COLD NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS.

CLIMATE...WITH ONLY ONE DAY LEFT IN THE MONTH OF JANUARY THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF -26.7 DEGREES AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IS THE COLDEST SINCE 1971. BASED ON THE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY THE MONTH WILL LIKELY END UP AS THE 5TH COLDEST
JANUARY ON RECORD BEHIND ONLY 1906...1934...1966 & 1971.

GALENA AND NOME ARE BOTH ON PACE FOR THE COLDEST JANUARY ON
RECORD. KOTZEBUE IS EXPECTED TO END UP WITH THE COLDEST JANUARY
SINCE 1934.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.
&&

JK JAN 12