Brisk Wind Advisory 30, NWS Fairbanks, AK

044 
FZAK52 PAFG 252330
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-261430-
230 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
STRONG HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING STRAIT
THU AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A WEATHER FRONT ALONG IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA INTERIOR WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
MACKENZIE DELTA AND BEAUFORT SEA THU.

$$

PKZ200-261430-
NORTON SOUND-
230 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-261430-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
230 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-261430-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
230 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT W WINDS 15 KT SOUTH OF CAPE
ESPENBERG.
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT W WINDS 10 KT SOUTH OF CAPE
ESPENBERG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-261430-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
230 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH JAN 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
140 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOCKED IN WITH DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH ONLY SLOW RETROGRADE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WEAK SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE THE EAST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ALONG THE BACK OF THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN RIDGE. SHARP CONTRAST NOTED IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH 40 AND AND A FEW 50S BELOW IN THE CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF TANANA AND TEENS TO 20S BELOW UNDER CLOUDS AND SNOW
IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEST AND NORTHWEST AK ARE CREATING 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS ON
SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR AND THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES.
WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR MASS ARE CREATING BRUTAL WIND CHILLS ON
THE HILLS AND SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR AND THROUGH THE PASSES IN
THE BROOKS RANGE. WIND CHILL VALUES TO 70 BELOW ARE NOTED IN
AFTERNOON OBS FROM PAKP. BRUTAL COLD ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH 57
BELOW NOTED AT UMIAT WITH 6 KTS OF WIND COMBINING FOR WIND CHILL
VALUE AROUND 82 BELOW.

AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR
EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE. KEPT TIMING ON WEST
COAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN SPREAD AMONG THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS AS WELL AS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS
WITH THE SHORT WAVE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN.
THERE IS HOWEVER DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE FEATURES WHICH GIVES A
DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE. PERIODIC
CLOUDS AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE THE VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WHILE
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN A COLD PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-
AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ222.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ204-AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CC JAN 12