Brisk Wind Advisory 214, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
513 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND DURING THE
NEXT 5-7 DAYS. A RAPIDLY DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS NOW EXITING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
SLOPE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TUE...DAMPENING OUT TUE NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWARD. RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER BUT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. 06Z GFS RUN BRINGS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THROUGH SAT INTO
SAT EVENING...BUT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A WEAK FLOW PATTERN...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK
FARTHER TO THE EAST.

A TIGHT PINCH IN THE SURFACE ISOBARS BETWEEN POINT HOPE AND POINT
LAY IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 55-60 MPH AT POINT HOPE...SHOULD
LAST THROUGH TODAY...THEN RELAX SOME. HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE POINT HOPE AREA.

NORTHEAST WINDS 30-35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST. A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ZONE 213 HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO NOON TODAY.

WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. CURRENT NAM12 CROSS SECTION INDICATES
MAX WINDS ALOFT BELOW 700 MB AROUND 55 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING...
DIMINISHING TO BELOW 50 KT BY NOON. THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS
FOR ZONES 225 AND 226 HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORIES.
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
EARLY TUE AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE...WINDS ALOFT BELOW 700 MB EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT AROUND 65
KT TUE MORNING. ADVISORY OR NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD
CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 50-55 KT
PERSIST. NEW ADVISORIES FOR THIS NEXT WIND EPISODE MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

A 979 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE PACIFIC WILL BE IN ITS FILLING STAGE WHEN IT
ARRIVES IN BRISTOL BAY TUE MORNING...DISSIPATING NEAR DALL
POINT BY WED MORNING. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
LARGE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE FRONTAL CLOUD BANDS
WILL LIKELY BE BECOMING DISORGANIZED BY THE TIME THEY
REACH OUR FORECAST AREA. 36 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH
TUE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN MANY
AREAS...A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE 3-4 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. CFSV2
EXTENDED RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
INDICATE POSITIVE MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER ALL OF NORTHERN
ALASKA FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES OF 6-9C.
WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECASTS CONTINUE THIS TREND...WITH POSITIVE MEAN
ANOMALIES OF 2.5-3.5C OR GREATER OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ207.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

RF DEC 12