Brisk Wind Advisory 181, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN.
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP THEREAFTER IN THE DETAILS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE THE MODELS ALSO DIFFER
ON HANDLING THE INCOMING LOW DETAILS WEDNESDAY BUT THE DIFFERENCES
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 523 DAM CENTER OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TONIGHT THEN
SOUTH. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA WILL
ROTATE EASTWARD OVER THE COAST TONIGHT AND TO THE YUKON TERRITORY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AND MOVE TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT THEN EAST OVER
THE BERING STRAIT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL FOLLOW WITH A
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY EVENING. AT
850 HPA...EXPECT A MINOR PUSH OF WARMER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST BUT
VERY SHORT TERM AND NOT EXPECTED TO TO BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN.

SURFACE...988 MB LOW IN THE GULF WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE EAST. A
MESSY PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH NO DOMINANT PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE INTERIOR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
PUSH UP OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE ARCTIC. A 966 MB LOW APPROACHING ATTU ISLAND TODAY WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AT 971 MB WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MAIN LOW NEAR THE BERING STRAIT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
YUKON DELTA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. GOOD PRECIPITATION NUMBERS
ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
WILL EXPAND FROM THOSE CURRENTLY ISSUED.

ARCTIC COAST...NO ISSUES. SOME STRATUS OFF THE COAST BUT DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO MOVE INLAND. LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM
OVER THE MAINLAND. COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BUDGE UNTIL AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

WEST COAST...MOST ACTIVE AREA AT THIS TIME. WATCHES ISSUED FOR
SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH AND INLAND. SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MID DAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW AND WINDS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
THE BERING STRAIT COAST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
BOTH AREAS WITH THE SEA ICE EXTENDING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
TO THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

INTERIOR...WATCHES ISSUED FOR MOST OF INTERIOR WITH SNOWFALL AT
THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 INCHES...HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WHITE
AND RAY MOUNTAINS SEEING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING EVEN AS THE CURRENT SNOW
ENDS AND SOME CLEARING OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MID RANGE...PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AS COLD AIR DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

SDB DEC 12