Brisk Wind Advisory 178, NWS Fairbanks, AK

680 
FZAK52 PAFG 101112
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
212 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-110030-
212 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 996 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTERIOR WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
MON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTON SOUND BY LATE MON NIGHT.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
TUE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.


$$

PKZ200-110030-
NORTON SOUND-
212 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. 

$$

PKZ210-110030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
212 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT E 35 KT FROM ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WEST. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ215-110030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
212 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 15 KT.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-110030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
212 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT.
.WED...N WINDS 35 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT.
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT.

$$

RF DEC 12

398 
FZAK52 PAFG 102231
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
131 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-111400-
131 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 966 MB LOW 550 NM WEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT 4 PM AKST...THE LOW WILL BE 969 MB 500 NM NORTHWEST
OF ADAK. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL BE 973 MB 250 NM
SOUTH OF GAMBELL. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ200-111400-
NORTON SOUND-
131 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-111400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
131 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-111400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
131 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT BECOMING SW.
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-111400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
131 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

DEC 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
558 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAYS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS PEGGED THE MAJOR
DEVELOPMENTS WELL...BOTH THE HEAVY WINDS OVER THE BERING STRAIT
AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS...AND THE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL NOW
SPREADING OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE GFS AND NAM COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REALM.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA ON
TUESDAY AND TO REACH THE YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL
TO THE WEST COAST ZONES SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR /..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY../ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN THE
REALM...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR...WHERE A MODERATE COLD SNAP OF
NEARLY THREE WEEKS IN DURATION HAS DECISIVELY ENDED. TEMPERATURES
HAVE COME UP AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES AT SOME SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR
STATIONS. A CHINOOK WIND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE IS NOT
EXPECTED...SO THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE
MODEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE SNOW. IN
THE INTERIOR...AN ALASKA RANGE CHINOOK AND WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ARE
INCOMPATIBLE.

AS THE NAM AND GFS MODELS HAD FORECAST ON SATURDAY EVENINGS
RUNS...THE NORTHERLY GALES FROM POINT HOPE SOUTH TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS REACHED MAXIMUM STRENGTH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND ARE NOW VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND STORM YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING IS SIMILAR TO
ONE TWO YEARS AGO. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT...

1. A STRONG NORTH WIND FROM BERING STRAIT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND

2. PLENTY OF OPEN WATER /FROM SHORE TO ABOUT 50 MILES
NORTH...WHICH IS UPWIND

3. COLD TEMPERATURES /NEAR 10 ABOVE ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
TODAY/

4. DEW POINTS 5 ABOVE OR LOWER.

COLD DRY AIR IS IDEAL FOR SPRAY. AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND 25
DEGREES F COLDER THAN THE SEA SURFACE CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE TO A HIGH GUST FACTOR AS WELL
AS UPDRAFTS WHICH LOFT SEA SPRAY. THE LOWER THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...THE FASTER SEA SPRAY FREEZES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING.

THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PRESENT SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
STORM AND THE ONE 2 YEARS AGO IS THAT THERE WAS MORE OPEN WATER TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND IN 2010...AND POSSIBLY STRONGER WINDS.

THIS MORNINGS POLAR ORBITTING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAYERED
FRONTAL CLOUDS OVER ALL THE REALM SOUTH OF TELLER TO OLD CROW. THE
NORTH SLOPE OF THE BROOKS RANGE IS THE COLDEST PART OF NORTHERN
ALASKA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES FROM 20 BELOW TO 40
BELOW.

THE BRISK EAST WINDS AT BIG DELTA REACHED A PEAK SPEED NEAR 45 MPH
OVERNIGHT. THE REPORTED DEPTH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND THERE IS ONLY
A TRACE...SO THE RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY BEING REPORTED MAY BE
DUE TO BLOWING DUST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

TF DEC 12