Brisk Wind Advisory 155, NWS Fairbanks, AK

513 
FZAK51 PAFG 262026
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1226 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-271400-
1226 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 997 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN TO 1002 MB BY 10 AM AKDT MONDAY. A 1001 MB LOW 275 NM
NORTH OF MACKENZIE BAY WILL DRIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN TO 996 MB
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ225-271400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
1226 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-271400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
1226 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-271400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
1226 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-271400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
1226 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-271400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
1226 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

CF/DA AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES APPEAR AFTER 48 HOURS BUT THEN BEGIN TO MERGE TOGETHER
AGAIN AT ABOUT 96 HOURS FOR THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE MAJOR STORY
TODAY IS COASTAL FLOODING IN KOTZEBUE.

COASTAL FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN KOTZEBUE EARLY SAT MORNING. THE
COASTAL FLOODING RESULTED FROM ABOUT 12 HOURS OF MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WHICH CREATED WAVES THAT CRASHED ON TO
SHORE GIVEN THE FETCH FROM THE WEST. THIS PUSHED WATER INLAND AND
UNDER SEVERAL HOUSING UNITS AS WELL AS THREATENED THE AIRPORT
RUNWAY. THIS OCCURRED WITH A RELATIVELY MINIMAL SURGE VALUE WHICH
WAS SOMEWHERE NEAR OR BELOW 2 FT. THE WINDS ARE TAPERING OFF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE SECOND WRAP AROUND FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE STATE AND HAS
SPREAD SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT. THE PARENT LOW AROUND 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF POINT LAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH
THROUGH SUN.

THE NEXT LOW IN LINE TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST WILL TAKE A MUCH
MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE THAT WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE Y-K DELTA AND THEN
POINTS EASTWARD. SOME RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND THEN EASTWARD AS WELL BUT IT APPEARS THAT NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL BE FAIRLY RAIN FREE.

THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND
ACTUALLY GIVE A FAIRLY DECENT WETTING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR. THIS MAY GREATLY ASSIST WITH THE DRY CREEK FIRE IN THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT INTO
CANADA BY MON AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POST FRONTAL
SHOWER LEFTOVERS.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA BY LATER
TUE AND THEN BE NUDGED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON THU
COMING IN FROM THE WEST COAST.

NONE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING IN THIS WEEK SHOULD POSE A
MAJOR CONCERN FOR COASTAL ISSUES AT THIS POINT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAIN ON SUN SHOULD DAMPEN DOWN THE DRY
CREEK FIRE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...COASTAL FLOODING IN KOTZEBUE WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ209.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ212.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.
&&

CF AUG 12