Brisk Wind Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

038 
FZAK51 PAFG 081050
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 AM AKDT WED AUG 8 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-090200-
250 AM AKDT WED AUG 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 974 MB LOW 650 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
SLOWLY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST THROUGH THU MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
SIBERIA TO THE CHUKCHI SEA TODAY.

$$

PKZ225-090200-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
250 AM AKDT WED AUG 8 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-090200-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
250 AM AKDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-090200-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
250 AM AKDT WED AUG 8 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-090200-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
250 AM AKDT WED AUG 8 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-090200-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
250 AM AKDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RL/RF AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1252 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
VERY DEEP UPPER LOW...ABOUT 504 DAM AT 500 MB...NEAR 82.5N/173W...
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON A WOBBLY COURSE TO NEAR 82N/122W BY
4AM FRIDAY...WEAKENING TO AROUND 513 DAM. THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE VERTICALLY STACKED. THE 968 MB SURFACE
LOW WILL FILL TO ABOUT 988 MB BY 4 AM FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED FRONT
EXTENDING FROM DEMARCATION POINT SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE FAREWELL
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CREEK SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE RAIN
DEGENERATING TO SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS BY LATE
TONIGHT.

CURRENT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LIKELY
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS MAX OUT AT AROUND
570 DAM BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NORMAL. ECMWF AND ITS MOS TEMPERATURES RUNNING A TAD
COOLER THAN THE GFS. THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A PERIOD OF NICE
WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A FEATURE ALOFT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO RED FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NIL

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

RF AUG 12