Brisk Wind Advisory 146, NWS Fairbanks, AK

919 
FZAK51 PAFG 271054
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 AM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-280200-
254 AM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 998 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND STRENGTHEN TO 993 MB 150 NM WEST OF POINT
LAY BY 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ225-280200-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
254 AM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-280200-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
254 AM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER NOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT...BECOMING S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT...HIGHEST WEST OF ICY CAPE.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-280200-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
254 AM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER NOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-280200-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
254 AM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT...STRONGEST OFFSHORE. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-280200-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
254 AM AKDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT...STRONGEST OFFSHORE. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

DA/CB JUL 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
455 AM AKDT THU JUL 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...DEEP LOW 700 MILES WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA FRI PM.  THE LOW TAKES A
TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG BLOCKING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.  AT 00Z MONDAY THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH THE LOW. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND IT ENSEMBLE MEAN.  AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT TROUGH REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND WESTERN MAINLAND.  RIDGING COVERS MUCH THE MAINLAND
FROM 155W EASTWARD AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE...LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE LOW ALOFT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A 996 MB LOW ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF CHUKOTKA MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS TROUGH TONIGHT
AS A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR FRI
MORNING AND DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTH WITH ITS PARENT LOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE BEAUFORT SEA WITH A
TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE CHUKCHI SEA LOW MOVES NORTH.

INTERIOR...A WARM AIR MASS WILL COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +12-15C
RANGE.  THE WARMEST EASTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS IN ZONES 220 AND 224
WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S INTO THE WEEKEND...
AND EVEN FAIRBANKS WILL HAVE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN 80 DEGREE
DAY. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
THAT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR FRI PM.

WEST COAST...SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN IN THE NOME AREA WITH
A TWO DAY TOTAL OF 2.25 INCHES AT NOME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
UNIFORM...EVEN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST WITH 86
HUNDREDTHS AT WHITE MOUNTAIN. RED DOG MINE IS THE ONLY OTHER GAGE
WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT LIKELY SOME UNGAGED MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LOCALIZED AREAS
OF 3 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN. THE 12Z NOME SOUNDING IS SATURATED UP
TO 600 MILLIBARS WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 OF 1.08 INCHES. RAIN TODAY
WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH ABOUT A 12 HOUR
BREAK IN THE RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE GULF OF ANADYR LOW MOVES IN. MORE HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRI-SUN AND THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ZONE 210 WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST RE-ISSUED AGAIN DOWN THE
ROAD. A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT AND PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

TIDES AT NOME ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. ANOTHER STORM SURGE
OF 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER LEVELS IS EXPECTED LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AT NOME WITH MAXIMUM TIDES OF 3-3.5 FT. ALONG THE
CHUKCHI SEA COAST...A MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS
EXPECTED SAT.

NORTH SLOPE...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
FROM BARROW AND DOWN THE COAST TO CAPE LISBURNE AS SHORTWAVES AND
MOISTURE STREAM TO THE NORTHEAST. MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EAST OF BARROW.

MEDIUM RANGE...UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE CHUKCHI
SEA AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SAT NIGHT.  A TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND
EASTERN BERING SEA/WESTERN MAINLAND.  ANOTHER LOW MOVING OFF THE
KAMCHATKA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST BRING
SEA BY MID WEEK.  THE RIDGING IN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO.  GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
AS IT LIKELY REMAINS UNSETTLED ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. SEAS AND TIDES
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTON
SOUND AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOWEST RH'S (BELOW 30 PCT
IN SOME SPOTS) WILL BE IN THE ERN INTERIOR VALLEYS (ZONES 220 AND
224) IN THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY AND EAST OF FT YUKON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF FAIRBANKS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...2.25 INCHES OF RAIN AT NOME SINCE TUE MORNING. ADD'L
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF NOME. THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM FRI-SUN.

THE TANANA WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SOME RISES BY THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IN THE ERN AK
RANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AKZ210 FOR SMALL STREAMS IN THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY AREAS OF THE INTERIOR SEWARD
PENINSULA

&&

CB JUL 12