Brisk Wind Advisory 145, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1226 PM AKDT WED JUL 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF THE BERING
STRAIT TODAY WILL CONTINUE ON A WOBBLY CYCLONIC COURSE TO BE ABOUT
200 MILES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF
ALASKA...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL TRANSIT THESE AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND SEWARD PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA COAST. AT NOME...1.65 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
A ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA..CHUKCHI SEA...AND NORTON SOUND. TIDES
ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON SOUND ARE RUNNING AROUND
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PRESENT TIME. SEA LEVELS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER STORM SURGE OF 2 TO
2.5 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
IN THE NOME AREA...THE NEXT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 2
FEET WITH MAXIMUM TIDES OF AROUND 3.5 FEET. FARTHER TO THE EAST ON
THE NORTON SOUND COAST...MAXIMUM TIDES WILL BE A LITTLE OVER 4
FEET. SEAS OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FEET...DIMINISHING
SOME AS THE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE. ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST...A
MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF 0.5 TO 0.75 FOOT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SEAS 5-6 FEET OFFSHORE. ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
SOUND THE ELEVATION OF SEA LEVELS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET.

THE NEXT EPISODE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON THE WEST COAST AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION TRACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
ROUND...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES.

OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL GIVE RISE TO PLENTY OF SUN AND GOOD BEACHING
WEATHER...WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. BUT SOME ELEVATION
OF SEA LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN NORTON SOUND AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI
SEA COAST NORTHWEST OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN. SEE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS. MIN RH
LIKELY TO BE BELOW 30 PERCENT IN ZONES 220 AND 224.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL
BRING SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS TO NEAR BANKFULL OR POSSIBLY ABOVE
BANKFULL STAGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF JUL 12