Brisk Wind Advisory 141, NWS Fairbanks, AK

156 
FZAK51 PAFG 111035
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 AM AKDT WED JUL 11 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-120145-
235 AM AKDT WED JUL 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1015 MB HIGH 250 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WILL MOVE TO
BANKS ISLAND BY 10 PM AKDT THURSDAY. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL COVER THE BROOKS RANGE TROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR BARROW BY 
4AM AKDT THURSDAY AND WEAKEN. 

$$

PKZ225-120145-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
235 AM AKDT WED JUL 11 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ230-120145-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
235 AM AKDT WED JUL 11 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ235-120145-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
235 AM AKDT WED JUL 11 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-120145-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
235 AM AKDT WED JUL 11 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-120145-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
235 AM AKDT WED JUL 11 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

SDB/CB JUL 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
117 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS.
THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE.

SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OF NORTHWAY AND INTO FAR WESTERN CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND PUSH THE RAIN BAND
NORTHWARD FROM THE AREA EAST OF THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY TO FORT
YUKON WITH SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR NORTHWAY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPE AND THEN BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NORTHERN ALASKA ON WED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE Y-K DELTA WILL DEEPEN AND PINWHEEL AROUND
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU AND THEN BEGIN WEAKENING.
THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHORT WAVES THAT WILL TRAVEL UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SPREADING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH NOTHING MAJOR IS EXPECTED.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS SHOWN TO BE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT
BARROW BY FRI EVENING THEN QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA. ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT IS POSSIBLE A FEW DAYS AFTER THAT TO REINFORCE THE COLDER
AIR WITH POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR AFTER WED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER WED OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN EASTERN ALASKA HAVE RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS HAS ONLY
RESULTED IN SOME RIVER RISES BUT NOTHING NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT THE
MOMENT. IT WILL BE ABOUT 36 HOURS FOR MANY PLACES TO REALIZE THE
EFFECTS OF THIS RAINFALL AS IT MAKES IT DOWN RIVER THOUGH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

CF JUL 12