Brisk Wind Advisory 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

222 
FZAK52 PAFG 102336
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-111445-
236 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1048 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A 975 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND MOVES NORTH INTO THE MAINLAND AND
WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TO MCKENZIE BAY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A 1035 MB HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-111445-
NORTON SOUND-
236 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-111445-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
236 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-111445-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
236 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-111445-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
236 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

SDB/DA JAN 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING RIDGE
BEING AMPLIFIED BY A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVING EAST TOWARD
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THEN BY TUE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN MOVING
EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVING TO BE FROM NEAR THE
NORTH POLE SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE WITHIN THE TROUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE BERING STRAIT AND THEN NORTHWARD TO SIBERIA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE THE RIDGE WILL
THEN DEVELOP INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK IN THE BERING SEA.
HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW HEIGHTS SPREADING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN CANADA TO
THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR
FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD TO NEAR DILLINGHAM BY TUE
AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD A BAND OF RELATIVELY HEAVY SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE Y-K DELTA WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION FINDS ITS WAY
TO THE SNOW MAGNET AREA OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS SHOULD SPREAD FROM 8 TO 10 INCHES OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OF ZONES 215 AND 216 THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. INITIALLY WIND
CHILLS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO DO AWAY WITH
THAT BY LATER IN THE EVENING IN ZONE 225.

FOR THE FUEL DELIVERY THAT IS DESTINED FOR NOME BY THE CREWS OF
THE RENDA AND THE HEALY...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE BERING
STRAIT COAST AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 30 KT BY TUE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE APPROACHING
50 BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL STAY NORTHERLY BUT
TURNING SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD ON WED AND DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR...THE
SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THAT WILL BE THE CORRIDOR TO
NOME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ207-
AKZ213.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ209-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ235.
&&

CF JAN 12