Brisk Wind Advisory 137, NWS Fairbanks, AK

520 
FZAK52 PAFG 112146
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
146 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-121300-
146 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 1024
MB NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN TO
1020 MB 4AM THU. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR.

$$

PKZ200-121300-
NORTON SOUND-
146 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-121300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
146 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT NEAR GAMBELL SE 15 KT. SEAS 3
FT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-121300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
146 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-121300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
146 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

TF/JL JUN 12

832 
FZAK52 PAFG 121135
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
335 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130245-
335 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT
TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED 250 NM WEST OF ST
MATTHEW ISLAND BY 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ200-130245-
NORTON SOUND-
335 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS DECREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-130245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
335 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. VSBY LOCALLY LESS THAN
1 NM.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-130245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
335 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG. VSBY LOCALLY LESS THAN 1 NM IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-130245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
335 AM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. FOG. VSBY LOCALLY LESS THAN 1 NM IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.WED..NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

DJH/CB JUN 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1237 PM AKDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR..570 DAM HIGH AT 500 MB CENTERED JUST N OF BARROW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TO BECOME A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO
NUNIVAK ISLAND AND SWD BY 00Z WED...WITH WEAKLY DEFINED 567 DAM
HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CANADA ARCHIPELAGO WILL DEEPEN THROUGH 00Z MON... BECOMING
A 546 DAM LOW OVER THE MACKENZIE DELTA REGION. MODEL POSITIONS FOR
THIS UPPER LOW AGREE WELL THROUGH 00Z TUE...BY 00Z WED THE ECMWF
TAKES THE UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTH...TO NEAR FORT YUKON...WHILE THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW A SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH A POSITION NEAR THE BORDER
NW OF OLD CROW. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO THE
GFS/NAM OPERATIONAL RUNS. THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS IS PREFERRED. THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL SET UP A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER ALMOST ALL
OF THE NORTHERN AK MAINLAND BY 00Z TUE.

SURFACE...1036 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 350 NM N OF DEMARCATION POINT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 00Z WED WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TO 1028 MB. THERMAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS FROM A
1005 MB LOW NEAR CHICKEN TO HEALY TO NEAR RED DOG MINE. THE MAIN TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN A FEW MB AND SHIFT A BIT SOUTH BY MON AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
FROM A 1002 MB LOW NEAR CHICKEN TO THE AKZ216/AKZ227 BORDER. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD ACROSS AKZ227 AND NWWD INTO
AKZ208.

OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...MODERATE EAST WINDS FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
THE COASTAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY STRATUS FREE...GOES VIS LOOP
SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA EAST OF
150W...WHICH IS MOVING WWD. THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS ABOUT
60-70 NM OFFSHORE N OF DEMARCATION POINT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST THERE IS LITTLE STRATUS. TIMING OF THE RETURN OF STRATUS
TO THE ARCTIC COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT NOT LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM OVER MOST AREAS WITH WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED. THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRATUS PATCH MIGHT GET CLOSE TO
OR REACH BARROW TONIGHT. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE SMALL...NO MORE THAN AROUND 5
DEGREES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
NEAR THE CREST OF THE BROOKS RANGE WEST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN AREAS OF THE INTERIOR ALONG AND
NEAR THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...ERN AKZ208-CNTRL/ERN AKZ216-AKZ217-WRN
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.
ISOLD TSTMS ALSO OVER EXTREME SWRN MOUNTAINS OF AKZ206-SERN
MOUNTAINS OF AKZ205. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO BE 0.8-1.1 INCH
OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR EXCEPT THE EXTREME NE WHICH WILL BE
DRIER...SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN A U-SHAPED ARC COVERING THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN BROOKS RANGE-WESTERN INTERIOR AND FROM AKZ227
EWD ALONG AND NEAR THE AK RANGE.THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
LIES IN THIS U-SHAPED AREA...WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED ALONG THE MAIN THERMAL TROUGH AXIS. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR...UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE RAIN OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
IN AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN AKZ217-AKZ216-WRN AKZ219-WRN AKZ221.
ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE RAIN OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227. MAIN THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM NEAR NORTHWAY TO
CENTRAL AKZ216.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ISOLD TSTMS ERN AKZ216-AKZ221-SRN AKZ222-AKZ223-EXTREME SWRN
AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227. MAIN THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM NEAR
NORTHWAY TO MINCHUMINA WITH BRANCHES NWWD TO AKZ208 AND SWWD
FROM MINCHUMINA.

EXTENDED FORECAST...WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LIKELY THU AND
FRI...TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN APPEARS WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MUCH COOLER
W TO NW FLOW PATTERN TO MOST OF NRN AK...ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN LOOKS MUCH MORE REALISTIC MAINTAINING A WEAK FLOW PATTERN.
BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHOICE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE SPREADING SWD OVER THE YUKON FLATS
AND THE SE BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONTINUED
DRYING MON WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
MIN RH IN AKZ218-AKZ220 MON AND TUE LIKELY TO BE 20-25 PERCENT
WITH SOME AREAS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...LOCAL WIND
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN AKZ220 MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF JUN 12