Brisk Wind Advisory 130, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1222 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. COLD UPPER
LEVEL LOW SWINGING DOWN FROM HIGH ARCTIC TO NEAR POINT HOPE BY
LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS IS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE
ARCTIC COAST THAT WILL DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TROUGH THE BERING SEA AND GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ALASKA AND MOVE TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE AS FAR
EASTWARD AS ABOUT MCGRATH AND THEN GETS PUSHED BACK WESTWARD BY
THE WESTWARD ROTATING TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.

CURRENTLY...A TROUGH ALOFT IS ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND SPREAD FAIRLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ZONES 223...224 AND 226 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD INITIATE
A NEW ROUND OF FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND. THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY TUE WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY TAKE PLACE.

BY TUESDAY A FAST MOVING TROUGH ALOFT WILL PUSH NORTHWESTWARD FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PROVIDE MORE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR BUT SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE WEST COAST BY WED. THE
SEWARD PENINSULA MAY ESCAPE THIS PRECIP BAND THOUGH.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL OVER THE MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING OVER INTERIOR ZONES NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR
ZONE 224.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WATER
LEVEL RISES THIS WEEKEND IN ZONES 223...224 AND POSSIBLY 226 WITH
EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

CF MAY 12