Brisk Wind Advisory 128, NWS Fairbanks, AK

076 
FZAK51 PAFG 162235
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 PM AKDT WED MAY 16 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-171230-
235 PM AKDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WED PM WILL
DISSIPATE NORTH OF BARROW LATER THU. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO NEAR BANKS ISLAND BY 4 PM
AKDT THURSDAY.
 
$$

PKZ225-171230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
235 PM AKDT WED MAY 16 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-171230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
235 PM AKDT WED MAY 16 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-171230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
235 PM AKDT WED MAY 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-171230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
235 PM AKDT WED MAY 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-171230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
235 PM AKDT WED MAY 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

JL/JM MAY 12

177 
FZAK51 PAFG 171137
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
337 AM AKDT THU MAY 17 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-180245-
337 AM AKDT THU MAY 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A 1010 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR WRANGEL
ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ225-180245-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
337 AM AKDT THU MAY 17 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT.
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-180245-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
337 AM AKDT THU MAY 17 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-180245-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
337 AM AKDT THU MAY 17 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. FOG.
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT.
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-180245-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
337 AM AKDT THU MAY 17 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. MORNING FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-180245-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
337 AM AKDT THU MAY 17 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. MORNING FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

DJH/CB MAY 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1214 PM AKDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF AKZ222 WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 50
MILES WEST OF EAGLE BY WED AFTERNOON...AND TO ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH OF NORTHWAY BY THU AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL BUILD INTO AN EXPANSIVE HIGH CENTERED NEAR HUSLIA
BY THU AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL BE GRADUALLY SUPPRESSED AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE ALASKA
MAINLAND. BY THU AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF AKZ224 AND AKZ226.

AREAS OF NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
TONIGHT...BUT ANY STRATUS FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
EARLY IN THE DAY WED WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ASSIST FROM OFFSHORE WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST.

OVER THE BERING SEA...998 MB LOW ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ST MATTHEW ISLAND MOVING TO 250 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL
BY EARLY WED MORNING FILLING TO 1003 MB. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE WEST COAST ZONES TONIGHT AND WED.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED...
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS AKZ218-AKZ220-ERN AKZ221-
 AKZ223-AKZ224-ERN AKZ225-AKZ226.
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS RN AKZ218-ERN AKZ220-EXTREME
 ERN AKZ223-AKZ224-ERN AKZ226.
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS SERN AKZ224-ERN AKZ226.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THERE
LITTLE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS ON THE HANDLING OF THE SMALLER FEATURES. HPC MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST INCORPORATES A BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH YESTERDAYS 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN
BEING GIVEN A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT FOR DAY 4.

&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM FORT YUKON TO EAGLE TO BEAVER
CREEK WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WEAKENING SLOWLY THROUGH WED. THIS
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE GENERAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS AND EXPANDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PROBLEM AREAS AT THIS TIME. THE ICE JAM WHICH WAS UPSTREAM
FROM KALTAG RELEASED MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

RF MAY 12