Brisk Wind Advisory 127, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1214 PM AKDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF AKZ222 WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 50
MILES WEST OF EAGLE BY WED AFTERNOON...AND TO ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH OF NORTHWAY BY THU AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL BUILD INTO AN EXPANSIVE HIGH CENTERED NEAR HUSLIA
BY THU AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL BE GRADUALLY SUPPRESSED AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE ALASKA
MAINLAND. BY THU AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF AKZ224 AND AKZ226.

AREAS OF NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
TONIGHT...BUT ANY STRATUS FOG WHICH DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
EARLY IN THE DAY WED WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ASSIST FROM OFFSHORE WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST.

OVER THE BERING SEA...998 MB LOW ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ST MATTHEW ISLAND MOVING TO 250 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL
BY EARLY WED MORNING FILLING TO 1003 MB. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE WEST COAST ZONES TONIGHT AND WED.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED...
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS AKZ218-AKZ220-ERN AKZ221-
 AKZ223-AKZ224-ERN AKZ225-AKZ226.
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS RN AKZ218-ERN AKZ220-EXTREME
 ERN AKZ223-AKZ224-ERN AKZ226.
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLD TSTMS SERN AKZ224-ERN AKZ226.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THERE
LITTLE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS ON THE HANDLING OF THE SMALLER FEATURES. HPC MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST INCORPORATES A BLEND OF SEVERAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH YESTERDAYS 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN
BEING GIVEN A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT FOR DAY 4.

&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM FORT YUKON TO EAGLE TO BEAVER
CREEK WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WEAKENING SLOWLY THROUGH WED. THIS
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE GENERAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS AND EXPANDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PROBLEM AREAS AT THIS TIME. THE ICE JAM WHICH WAS UPSTREAM
FROM KALTAG RELEASED MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

RF MAY 12