Brisk Wind Advisory 123, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 AM AKDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR BY 12Z MON
WHILE WEAKENING SOME...THEN MOVE TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR
BY 00Z TUE. OTHERWISE...WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z TUE. WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

SURFACE...
ELONGATED 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN
TO 1032 MB BY 12Z MON AND TO AROUND 1022 MB BY 12Z TUE.
994 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN
INTO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
EASTWARD ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY BY 12Z MON. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OCCLUDING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE TODAY. CLOUDS WILL COVER ALL OF
ALL OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT.

THE NORTHWARD MOVING LOW IS PUMPING WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO
THE INTERIOR AND INCREASING STABILITY. NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH...AND OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND PARTS
OF THE ALASKA RANGE MON. GFS AND NAM LIFTED INDEX PROGS
INDICATING LIFTED INDEXES OF +1 TO +2 OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS
RANGE MON NIGHT AND TUE.

AN ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BETHEL AREA TO BETTLES
AND EASTWARD. A SLOW NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD DRIFT OF THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON. ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH OCCURS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FROZEN.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...CURRENT GFS/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN PROGGING AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
HIGH ARCTIC...ARRIVING IN THE CHUKCHI SEA BY FRI. CURRENT
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEAN EXTENDED FORECAST
INDICATES TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD MAY 12-MAY 16. INTERIOR AND ARCTIC SLOPE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEM AREAS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO ICE JAMS OR PROBLEM AREAS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RF MAY 12