Brisk Wind Advisory 111, NWS Fairbanks, AK

483 
FZAK52 PAFG 121013
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 AM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130115-
213 AM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA.
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
PERSIST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.


$$

PKZ200-130115-
NORTON SOUND-
213 AM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS ICE FREE AREAS 1 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS ICE FREE AREAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS ICE FREE AREAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS ICE FREE AREAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS ICE FREE AREAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ210-130115-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
213 AM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-130115-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
213 AM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-130115-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
213 AM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RF/CC APR 12

576 
FZAK52 PAFG 122156
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131230-
156 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA AND OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL PERSIST INTO SUN. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA FRI NIGHT. A WEAK LOW
IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL MOVE SOUTH THU NIGHT AND WEAKEN.


$$

PKZ200-131230-
NORTON SOUND-
156 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FOG. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS.
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FOG. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-131230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
156 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-131230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
156 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-131230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
156 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

APR 12

448 
FZAK52 PAFG 130948
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
148 AM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-140030-
148 AM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ200-140030-
NORTON SOUND-
148 AM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ210-140030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
148 AM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-140030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
148 AM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-140030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
148 AM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

RF/DA APR 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
256 AM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ALOFT THAT COVERS MOST OF NORTHERN AK WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA AND EXTENDING THE NW AK COAST BY FRI. AN UPPER LOW
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK TODAY AND TONIGHT AIMING TOWARD
THE PAC NW. AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING TONIGHT WILL JOIN FORCES WITH ANOTHER NORTH PAC LOW AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND.

SFC...A 1035-1040 MB HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT
SEA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING SEA TODAY AND WILL COVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BERING SEA
THU-FRI.  AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH AK.

INTERIOR...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING ALTHOUGH NOT
DRAMATICALLY SO.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
NORTH INTO THE EASTERN AK RANGE/UPPER TANANA VALLEY.  THE GFS IS
MORE ENTHUSIASTIC IN CUTTING OFF A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAN THE
NAM AND GENERATES MORE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SOME PRECIP AND THE SREF HAS
HIGH PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. WILL GIVE THIS FEATURE A
BIT MORE PLAY THAN IN THE INHERITED FORECASTS...BUT WILL LIMIT TO
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LIKELY THAT IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE SNOW WITH SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS
ALOFT AND WET BULB COOLING.

NORTH SLOPE...THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW LEVEL ELY
FLOW ALONG THE COAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF STATUS AND PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES.  BEST CHANCE OF SOME
CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BUT SOME SPOTS WILL STAY SOCKED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ALL
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND
MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 15 ABOVE RANGE FOR HIGHS ALONG THE COAST.

WEST COAST...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AK
PENINSULA.  ALSO SOME PATCHES OF MAINLY COASTAL STATUS AND FOG.  NO
ORGANIZED AREAS OF PRECIP. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS IN THE
MARINE AREAS REMAINING SUB-ADVISORY.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE MID-RANGE GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON HIGH ALOFT IN THE MID RANGE OVR THE BEAUFORT SEA ARCING SWWD INTO
CHUKTOKA. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH CYCLONIC CRLN COVERING MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
HOWEVER...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES QUITE VARIABLE. THIS
WILL NOT BE AN WET PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ALASKA...BUT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AMS PROBABLY STILL
COOL/DRY ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE SNOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT AMOUNTS
WOULD BE TINY. TEMPS MOSTLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH'S THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS WILL DROP TO
20-30 PCT IN MOST SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES...BUT THE WIND REGIME
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE ATTM. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE INTERIOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WITH TEMPS AT NIGHT GETTING WELL DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. OVERALL A GOOD SET UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO SLOWLY
RELEASE WATER FROM THE SNOW PACK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CB APR 12