Blizzard Watch 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

945 
WWAK42 PAFG 160842
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1142 PM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012

AKZ209-161600-
/X.NEW.PAFG.WC.Y.0056.121216T0842Z-121216T1600Z/
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY-
INCLUDING...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK
1142 PM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKST SUNDAY. 


* WIND CHILL VALUES...40 TO 50 BELOW.

* TIMING...COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE
  SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES RISE. 

* IMPACTS...EXPOSED FLESH CAN FREEZE IN A SHORT TIME RESULTING 
  IN FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOW WIND CHILLS WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED. IF
OUTDOORS...COVER EXPOSED SKIN TO PREVENT FROSTBITE.

&&

$$

AKZ213-161645-
/X.CON.PAFG.BZ.A.0007.121217T0300Z-121217T1500Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
1142 PM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. TRAVEL 
  AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES.

&&

$$

AKZ214-161645-
/X.CON.PAFG.BZ.A.0007.121217T0600Z-121217T1500Z/
YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...
PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...
PITKAS POINT
1142 PM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. TRAVEL 
  AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES.

&&

$$

984 
WWAK42 PAFG 161254
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

AKZ213-162100-
/X.UPG.PAFG.BZ.A.0007.121217T0300Z-121217T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.BZ.W.0018.121217T0300Z-121217T1500Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
354 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
MONDAY ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. TRAVEL 
  AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ214-162100-
/X.UPG.PAFG.BZ.A.0007.121217T0600Z-121217T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.BZ.W.0018.121217T0600Z-121217T1800Z/
YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...
PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...
PITKAS POINT
354 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...SOUTH GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* SNOW...4 INCHES 

* TIMING...BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. TRAVEL 
  AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ211-162100-
/X.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0055.121217T0600Z-121217T1800Z/
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST-
INCLUDING...NOME...WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN
354 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST MONDAY.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING
  SNOW. 

* WINDS...EAST GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

* SNOW...4 INCHES ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.
  THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
  THE WINDS AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY MAY BE GREATLY REDUCED. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
  ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONE OR MORE WINTER WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

&&

$$

AKZ212-162100-
/X.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0055.121217T0600Z-121217T2100Z/
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
INCLUDING...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...ELIM...KOYUK...
SHAKTOOLIK
354 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST MONDAY.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING
  SNOW. 

* WINDS...EAST GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* SNOW...4 INCHES ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.
  THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER
  MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY NOON MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY MAY BE GREATLY REDUCED. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
  ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONE OR MORE WINTER WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

&&

$$

AKZ209-161800-
/X.EXT.PAFG.WC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-121216T1800Z/
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY-
INCLUDING...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK
354 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...40 TO 50 BELOW.

* TIMING...COLD WIND CHILLS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS WINDS
  DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES RISE.

* IMPACTS...EXPOSED FLESH CAN FREEZE IN A SHORT TIME RESULTING 
  IN FROSTBITE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOW WIND CHILLS WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED. IF
OUTDOORS...COVER EXPOSED SKIN TO PREVENT FROSTBITE.

&&

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
628 AM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM WRANGELL ISLAND SOUTH OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL PROGRESS EAST OVER ALASKA BY TUE. THIS IS CAUSING
WESTERLY FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ONE TROUGH WHICH NOW LIES FROM BARTER ISLAND TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE
TO BARTER ISLAND TO DELTA JUNCTION BY 3PM SUN AND ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER BY EARLY MON AM. CLOUDS EAST OF TROUGH CHANGE TO CLEAR
ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE TROUGH ARE
BETWEEN 30 TO 50 BELOW IN VALLEYS.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE DATE LINE WILL MOVE TO NW
ALASKA BY 3PM SAT AND INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUN PM.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SW MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY MON.

SURFACE...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING ALOFT OVER THE SURFACE ARCTIC
AIR MASS FROM YAKUTAT TO MAYO WILL STRETCH NE TO CORDOVA TO EAGLE
BY 3AM SUN AND THEN DISSIPATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SE INTERIOR TODAY WHICH WILL TAPER OFF
TONIGHT WITH JUST FLURRIES SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING
N GUSTY WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND ALONG THE ALASKA
HIGHWAY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM BETHEL TO BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
MCGRATH TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3AM SUN AND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
SUN PM. THIS IS CAUSING N GUSTY WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES
AND ALONG THE ALASKA HIGHWAY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CLEAR AND VERY COLD AIR UNDER THIS HIGH IS CAUSING VALLEY
TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 50 BELOW WITH HILLS IN THE 10 TO 30 BELOW
RANGE.

A 991 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF POINT HOPE WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTH
OF POINT HOPE BY 3PM SAT AND THEN CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THIS IS
CAUSING SLY BRISK WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT WILL SPREAD TO
THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TODAY. EXPECT 1 INCH OF SNOW ALONG THIS
FEATURE TODAY.

A 997 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO NEAR NOME
AS A 1004 MB LOW BY 9AM SUN AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS WILL CAUSE
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW.

A 3RD AND STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
3PM SUN AND TO WESTERN NORTON SOUND BE 3PM MON. THIS COULD CAUSE
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE AREA SW OF THE BERING STRAIT TO GALENA TO
MCGRATH ON MON. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE WEST COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
ON THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL BUT DIVERGE BY TONIGHT ON LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE 2ND AND 3RD LOWS IN THE BERING SEA. SINCE THERE
ARE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
OVER THE BERING SEA THAT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT...WE FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS THE STRONGEST
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ224-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB DEC 12