Alert archive / Alaska / Areal Flood Advisories in 2012

Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

July 8, 2012

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this areal flood advisory at Jul 8, 2012, 9:25 PM AKDT. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2012, 9:25 PM AKDT (05:25 UTC)
Expired: Jul 9, 2012, 4:18 AM AKDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: NWS Fairbanks, AK
Area: Storm-based polygon

The nearest sounding before it

Mcgrath, (PMCG), launched 00:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 53 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 637 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

844 
WGAK89 PAFG 090525
FLSAFG

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
925 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

AKZ227-091515-
/O.NEW.PAFG.FA.Y.0021.120709T0525Z-120709T1515Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AK-
925 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 918 PM AKDT TO 715 AM 
AKDT MONDAY FOR THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY 

* UNTIL 715 AM AKDT MONDAY

* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY SUNDAY. SOME LOCATIONS REPORTED MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR
RAIN MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

* WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...SOME SMALL STREAMS MAY 
STILL BE AT NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL STAGES WITH LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. WATER LEVELS ON SMALL STREAMS ARE 
EXPECTED TO RECEDE OVERNIGHT.

LAT...LON 6257 15722 6313 15618 6351 15438 6408 15256
      6378 15280 6280 15197 6224 15438

$$

RF

1 follow-up statement

127 
WGAK89 PAFG 091218
FLSAFG

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
418 AM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

AKZ227-091227-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FA.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-120709T1515Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AK-
418 AM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

...THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

LAT...LON 6257 15722 6313 15618 6351 15438 6408 15256
      6378 15280 6280 15197 6224 15438

$$

CWA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at Jul 8, 3:52 PM AKDT, 5 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 3:52 PM AKDT, 5 hours 33 minutes before

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
352 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW ALOFT OVER ZONE 227 AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
A BIT AS IT MOVES WEST...WHILE THE PARENT LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA SLOWLY WEAKENS. WE NEVERTHELESS EXPECT THAT IT WILL HAVE
DROPPED MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION BY MORNING...AND THAT RAINFALL
IN ZONE 227 IN PARTICULAR WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OF
MCGRATH AND A VERY MODEST DOWNSLOPE EFFECT DEVELOPS. GOOD
RAINFALL IN ZONE 216 YET TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE WEST COAST WILL BE DEALING WITH THE REMAINS OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...BUT NO EXCITEMENT EXPECTED THAT FAR
WEST.

MODEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN INTERIOR
ON MONDAY...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER MIXED STRATIFORM/CONVECTIVE EVENT DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

THE PARENT LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A SHORT WAVE...PRESENTLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF
OF ALASKA...THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE AGGLOMERATION WILL LIFT OUT OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON ON
TUESDAY...LIKELY GIVING THE EASTERN INTERIOR A MIXED
STRATIFORM/CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT SPREADING IN FROM
THE EAST BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW A
CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE...SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION IN ZONES 224 AND
EASTERN 226 AT LEAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SMALL STREAM ADVISORY FOR ZONE 227 IN LIEU OF ANYTHING BETTER.
RAINFALL NEAR 10 PERCENT OF ANNUAL SOME PLACES. WE ALSO HAVE
CONCERNS FOR ZONE 216 AND EASTERN 215...BUT NO STATEMENTS YET.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ZONE 227.

&&

DJH JUL 12

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in Alaska, 2012 Every areal flood advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.