Small Craft Advisory 97, NWS Anchorage, AK

605 
FZAK51 PAFC 041259
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. A 996 MB LOW 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK SAT NIGHT MOVES TO
240 NM SE OF KODIAK AT 999 MB SUN MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATES BY SUN
EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 9
FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY NOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
13 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 9 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERAL ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE THROUGH ABOUT 36 HRS. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CREEP IN
AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL IN GENERAL SEEMS REASONABLE...SO GRIDS WILL
BE ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.

.UPPER LEVELS..A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
AFTERNOON MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH TONIGHT. THE LONG WAVE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...ACROSS SW ALASKA...TO THE
WESTERN GULF MOVES THROUGH COOK INLET EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
WESTERN CANADA BY SAT MORNING. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE BERING SEA STALLS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS SAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS WEST FROM CANADA. A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SUN
AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE...THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EAST IS THE LOW COMPLEX
APPROACHING SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVED INLAND OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY CENTER APPROACHING SOUTHERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENS TONIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...MOVES TO THE NORTHERN
GULF SUN AFTERNOON.

A 950 MB LOW APPROACHING ADAK THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS AND EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST AND NORTH AND IMPACTS THE AK PEN AND SW
ALASKA TONIGHT/SAT. THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL END THIS
EVENING IN COOK INLET AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND INTO SUN MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM CANADA. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS A FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND AK PEN...
AN APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AK PEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL TO THE DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. WINDS OVER THE AK PEN SHOULD DROP BELOW WARNING
LEVELS SAT AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
PERSIST INTO SAT NIGHT.

.ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS IS PRODUCING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD EAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS WEEKEND...USHERING IN A CHANGE TO THE LONG WAVE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ALASKAN DOMAIN. THIS NEW PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
MAINLAND ALASKA. OVERALL...EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT WEEK (AFTER
TODAY)...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THIS NEW PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
REMAINING OVER THE BERING SEA REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 125 155 161 191 195. HIGH WIND WARNING 181.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 155 160 165 180 170 175 176
         GALE WARNING...120 150 172 179 185

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 12