Small Craft Advisory 928, NWS Anchorage, AK

924 
FZAK51 PAFC 221232
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A 999 MB LOW WILL FORM 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK EARLY SAT EVENING THEN MOVE TO 210 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK AT 991
MB SUN MORNING AND THEN TO 90 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK SUN NIGHT AT 981 MB.


$$

PKZ120-230300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT MIDDLETON ISLAND AND E. SEAS
11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-230300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-230300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-230300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-230300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...FREEZING SPRAY ELSEWHERE. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BARREN
ISLANDS AND W...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-230300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-230300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-230300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-230300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR
FEATURES BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID TERM THE EC STARTS TO BECOME AN
OUTLIER KEEPING FEATURES FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IN THE
LONG TERM THINGS BEGIN TO FALL APART. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF MAJOR FEATURES IS INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL
TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CAUSING CONFIDENCE TO BE LOW LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE STATE COLD AND CLEAR
OF MOST CLOUD COVER. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE A FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST BRINGING IN WARMER AIR
FROM THE SOUTH. THE FRONT IS STALLING AS IT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE
RIDGING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE IS
KEEPING CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST PLACES IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS IS ALSO
KEEPING COLDER TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE MORE CHANNELED
TERRAIN...SPECIFICALLY AREAS THAT ARE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS AT OR NEAR WARNING LEVEL TODAY. AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
CALM DOWN. ON SATURDAY A LOW WILL FORM IN THE GULF THAT WILL BRING IN
MORE CLOUD COVER AND SOME PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING THE AREA CLEAR FROM MOST
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD THROUGHOUT THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY
IT WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL NOT MAKE IT AS THE RIDGING KEEPS IT OUT OVER THE BERING
WHERE IT WILL FALL APART EARLY SATURDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS BRINGING PRECIP TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND IT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT
WILL FALL APART EARLY SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE BERING AND WILL REMAIN THERE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN A NEW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS IN THE LONG TERM
BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A LOW
MOVING INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING PRECIP AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO MAINLAND ALASKA. ANOTHER LOW THAT IS DEEPER THAN THE
FIRST LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK BRINGING IN MORE WARM AIR AND PRECIP TO THE STATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...131 135
MARINE...GALES...127 128 130 180 170 176 185 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...126 127 128 120 121 129 130 138 140
                                141 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK DEC 12