Small Craft Advisory 868, NWS Anchorage, AK

964 
FZAK51 PAFC 011232
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH SUN MORNING. A 987 MB LOW FORMS 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN MORNING THEN MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YAKUTAT AT 988 MB SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-020300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT...HIGHEST SE OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT...HIGHEST SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 40 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
14 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT S OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
FREEZING  PRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-020300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-020300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI NOV 30 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE THE NAM WAS
GENERALLY USED FOR ITS BETTER REPRESENTATION OF SMALL SCALE
FEATURES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. THERE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WITH AN
ATTACHED LOW OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
YUKON LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG WINDS OVER THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THROUGH THE VALDEZ AREA ARE AIDED BY STRONG
PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
STRONG WINDS OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DECREASES. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VALDEZ AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY REMAIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THERE AS WELL. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WINDS THROUGH THESE
AREAS AS THE OVER-ALL PATTERN KEEPS THE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT THEY
WILL BE WELL BELOW THEIR CURRENT VALUES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS THE RIDGE GOES FROM
POSITIVELY TILTED (NUDGING ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA) TO NEGATIVELY
TILTED (NUDGING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST RUSSIA) BY THE END OF
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE YUKON LOW TO SLIDE WESTWARD
AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND
THE NORTHERN GULF.

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION...AS NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THOSE SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING SEA RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE INTO NORTHEAST RUSSIA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERN ALASKA LOW TO
SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111 131 135.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 127 128.
         GALE WARNING 121 126 130 132 150 155.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 140 141 160.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111.

LUDWIG NOV 12