Small Craft Advisory 833, NWS Anchorage, AK

376 
FZAK51 PAFC 200036
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 981 MB LOW AROUND 295 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
275 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 992
MB. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 440 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUST TO 55 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED....W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS.  
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

571 
FZAK51 PAFC 201217
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 987 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 993 MB TUE NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE WED
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-210300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-210300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-210300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-210300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-210300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-210300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-210300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-210300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-210300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1235 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...BUILDING RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF ASIA IS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH STATIONARY RIDGE OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. MEANWHILE ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS UPPER
LOW IS PART OF A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHICH ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA...WESTERN CANADA...THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE UPPER LOW IS DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN BERING HIGH AND GULF LOW...AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA (WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT )
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER
WATERS OF THE EASTERN BERING IS ALSO PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WEB CAMS SHOWS VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
SNOW ARE NOT ALL THAT BAD...ALTHOUGH KING COVE IS OCCASIONALLY
OBSERVING NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SINCE THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD WILL STICK WITH HIGH WIND WARNING
AND HIGHLIGHT THE LOCALIZED LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE FORECAST.

THERE ARE MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS IN THE GULF. THE MORE IMPORTANT
FEATURE HOWEVER IS AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WHICH ARE
ROTATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND.
MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW
ALONG THIS TROUGH. SOME AREAS IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
PICKED UP 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. A BLIZZARD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR KODIAK ISLAND AS SNOW ARRIVES THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SHOWERS
ARE DIMINISHING ALONG THE COAST AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM HAS BEST HANDLE ON SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER
WAVE HEADED TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL BE USED AS GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WINDS AND PRECIP AS IT CROSSES KODIAK ISLAND
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE GENERALLY PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND SHOW GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL MADE TO EXISTING FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ON KODIAK ISLAND.
WINDS AND SNOW WILL BOTH BE ON THE INCREASE AS SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER WAVE APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSES FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FLOW OFF
THE WATER TO CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO RISE TO
AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THUS...LOW
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR
KODIAK CITY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WELL
AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO EXPERIENCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BASED ON
INTENSITY OF RETURNS ON MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR AND THE FACT THAT
SNOW FALL COULD BE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF KODIAK ISLAND...HAVE UPPED SNOW TOTALS FOR KODIAK TONIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC ON MONDAY AS
THE ENTIRE LOW CIRCULATION RE-CENTERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN FILTER SOUTHWARD FROM INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE GULF. THE ADVECTION WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN GAP WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GULF COAST MAY SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SNOW MID WEEK AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP HIGH WINDS GOING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA...SO
WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING BEYOND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THESE UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL
THEN WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW
TO SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
WILL SETTLE INTO A COLD AND DRY PATTERN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. THIS MEANS THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...
FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING
TO SIBERIA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
VERY STABLE PATTERN FOR ALASKA IN THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD WITH
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. THUS...EXPECT MORE OF
THE SAME...COLD AND DRY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONG STORMS TRACKING JUST TO THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 171. HIGH WIND WARNING 181.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155 170 176.
         GALE WARNING...120 127 128 130 132 150 160 165 171 175 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 126 127 128 130 140 150 155 160
                                165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 12