Small Craft Advisory 814, NWS Anchorage, AK

671 
FZAK52 PAFC 121300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 972 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF KISKA WILL MOVE TO 90 NM NORTHEAST OF
AMCHITKA AT 954 MB TUE MORNING AND THEN TO 60 NM EAST OF ST PAUL AT
970 MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT W OF 
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 25
KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
DUTCH HARBOR...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
UNALASKA E...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BERING SIDE...SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S
WIND 45 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 17 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 19 FT
BUILDING TO 37 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT BERING SIDE...42 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING S WIND 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SEAS 16 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 70 KT...SEAS 29 FT
BUILDING TO 37 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT BERING SIDE...W 70 KT PACIFIC SIDE. BERING
SIDE... SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 42 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 60 KT PACIFIC SIDE...50 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 20 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 24 FT BERING SIDE...32 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 65 KT BECOMING W 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 23 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 33 FT SUBSIDING TO 26 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE REMAINS A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS HEADING EASTWARD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA BUILDS IN TO SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA HAS A SHARP TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
ROTATING INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS IS INCREASING A SOUTHWEST JET
STREAM OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND CREATING A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR RAPID SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. IT IS IN THIS
REGION WHERE A LOW HAS DEVELOPED AND IS QUICKLY STRENGTHENING. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE ADAK AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING STRONG
WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
AREAS NEAR ADAK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES. THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS BECOMING
COMPLEX IN STRUCTURE AND THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AS
TO WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL LOW CENTERS WILL BE. HOWEVER THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AROUND
THIS COMPLEX AND THAT IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECASTS.
THE LARGE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE BERING SEA HAS THE GFS SOLUTION A
LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST TODAY THAN EITHER THE 12Z NAM OR ECMWF.
HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS POSITIONING AND THE 18Z
NAM IS SHOWING A MOVE AWAY FROM THE ECMWF TOWARD THE GFS. THEREFORE
THE GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED IN THAT AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
IMPORTANT SINE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS STRONGER WIND TO THE ADAK AREA
AND IS THE REASON FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THAT ZONE.
BY THE TIME THIS LOW PASSES NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN CLOSER SO THERE ARE NO BIG WORRIES WITH THE
OVERALL FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...WEATHER IS GENERALLY CLEARING OUT AS THE LOW
IN THE GULF WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO PULL THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER
OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA
THOUGH IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DIMINISH. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE SOME OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. AS THE LARGE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUKON DELTA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TUESDAY. THERE IS A THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THESE AREAS AT THOSE TIMES AS WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT OVERRUNS THE COLD DENSE AIR AT THE SURFACE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE BIG WEATHER IS MOVING INTO THIS AREA
BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THE STRONG LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND THE FRONT
AHEAD OF IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WARM
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN OVER THESE AREAS AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE OVER THE MARINE AREAS. HOWEVER THE
STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE OCCLUSION AND THEN TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE BACK OF THE
LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LARGE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND ALLOW A STRONG RIDGE TO
BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEHIND IT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEXT WEEKEND BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE ONE COMING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 187.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 175 176.
         STORM 170 172 179 185.
         GALE 155 160 165 171 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 12