Small Craft Advisory 810, NWS Anchorage, AK

618 
FZAK52 PAFC 111258
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1004 MB LOW 270 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 330 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1008 MB MON MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A 984 MB LOW 510 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO 60 NM NORTH OF ADAK AT 960 MB TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-120300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-120300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT W OF COLD BAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-120300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W OF DUTCH HARBOR...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF DUTCH HARBOR...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-120300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON E OF
SHEMYA. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-120300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 15. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-120300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

517 
FZAK52 PAFC 120031
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1004 MB LOW 350 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND
DISSIPATE LATE SUN NIGHT. A 984 MB LOW 525 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL
MOVE TO 30 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA AT 957 MB MON AFTERNOON AND THEN TO
160 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST PAUL AT 963 MB TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-121500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-121500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS EAST...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS EAST...S WIND
25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-121500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-121500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT
MOLLER EAST...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER EAST...SE WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-121500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT BUILDING TO
14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG. FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-121500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-121500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT BECOMING S 20 WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-121500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT EXCEPT S 45 KT EAST OF
SEGUAM ISLAND. BERING SIDE...SEAS 18 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 21 FT
BUILDING TO 36 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 39 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-121500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...BERING SIDE...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 70 KT. SEAS 19 FT BERING SIDE...39 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 70 KT. SEAS 39 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-121500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
SHEMYA WEST...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT BERING SIDE...N 60 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 20 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 29 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-121500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-121500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN
BERING SEA JUST OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. IN BETWEEN THERE IS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE GULF LOW WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND
AMPLIFIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PART OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
RIDGE IS DUE TO A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE WESTERN BERING SEA
LOW AND PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
ON MONDAY AND PUSH THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE THE FORMERLY STRONG LOW THAT WAS NEAR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST AND IS BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT
IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SPLIT INTO TWO LOW ON MONDAY WITH ON IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND A SECOND ONE JUST A LITTLE EAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND.
IN THE BERING SEA REGION THERE IS A WEAK LOW TRANSITING THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA IS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL THE MODELS ARE DOING FINE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISSUES OF NOTE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE FIRST DEALS WITH THE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS MODEL IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT TRIES TO CONSOLIDATE THE ENERGY OF THE LOW
INTO ONE CENTER WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM ELONGATE THE LOW INTO TROUGH
WITH TWO CENTERS. THE GFS DOES THIS OFTEN AND THEY DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM SUPPORT THE TWO CENTER SOLUTION THE ECMWF AND NAM PRESENT OVER
THE ONE CENTER GFS SOLUTION.
IN THE BERING SEA THERE IS A DIFFERENT ISSUE CONCERNING THE NAM MODEL
BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NAM IS WEAKER
THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF AND IS MOVING THE CENTER OF THE LARGE
LOW OVER 200 MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE NAM HAS BEEN IN ERROR A FEW TIMES
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY PLACING THE BERING SEA LOWS TOO FAR TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS LIKELY ANOTHER OCCURRENCE OF THIS AND THEREFORE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE BERING SEA FROM MONDAY
ONWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THE LOW IN THE GULF IS CONSOLIDATING THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND IT AND MOVING MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY ONLY SEE
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE CLEARING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE THE OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AREAS.

OF NOTE WITH THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING
SEA IS THAT IT IS A WARM CORE RIDGE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THIS IS KEEPING A LARGE BLOCK OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION TO NEALY 5000 FT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL CREATE A SITUATION THAT WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND YUKON DELTA AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF A
SHOWERY NATURE AND NOT COVER A LARGE AREA. THE WARM AIR ALOFT ALSO
MAKES THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO CLEAR
OUT A LITTLE BIT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BIG WEATHER EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BERING SEA THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY AND THE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AFTER THAT.
THIS STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND RAIN TO TO THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. BEING ANOTHER WARM SYSTEM IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THAT AREA TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ NOV 12