Small Craft Advisory 809, NWS Anchorage, AK

862 
FZAK51 PAFC 110648 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
950 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

UPDATED ZONE 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DRIFT TO 175 NM
SOUTH OF SITKA AT 1008 MB MON AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
100 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MON.
$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT S OF NAKED ISLAND 
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
950 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

194 
FZAK51 PAFC 111257
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 MB LOW 120 NM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 1009 MB 270
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT MON AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
PANHANDLE TUE MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-120300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-120300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-120300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER DURING THE
EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-120300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
12 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-120300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-120300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN
BERING SEA JUST OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. IN BETWEEN THERE IS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE GULF LOW WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND
AMPLIFIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PART OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
RIDGE IS DUE TO A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE WESTERN BERING SEA
LOW AND PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
ON MONDAY AND PUSH THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE THE FORMERLY STRONG LOW THAT WAS NEAR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST AND IS BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT
IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SPLIT INTO TWO LOW ON MONDAY WITH ON IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND A SECOND ONE JUST A LITTLE EAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND.
IN THE BERING SEA REGION THERE IS A WEAK LOW TRANSITING THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA IS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL THE MODELS ARE DOING FINE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISSUES OF NOTE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE FIRST DEALS WITH THE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS MODEL IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT TRIES TO CONSOLIDATE THE ENERGY OF THE LOW
INTO ONE CENTER WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM ELONGATE THE LOW INTO TROUGH
WITH TWO CENTERS. THE GFS DOES THIS OFTEN AND THEY DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM SUPPORT THE TWO CENTER SOLUTION THE ECMWF AND NAM PRESENT OVER
THE ONE CENTER GFS SOLUTION.
IN THE BERING SEA THERE IS A DIFFERENT ISSUE CONCERNING THE NAM MODEL
BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NAM IS WEAKER
THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF AND IS MOVING THE CENTER OF THE LARGE
LOW OVER 200 MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE NAM HAS BEEN IN ERROR A FEW TIMES
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BY PLACING THE BERING SEA LOWS TOO FAR TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS LIKELY ANOTHER OCCURRENCE OF THIS AND THEREFORE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE BERING SEA FROM MONDAY
ONWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THE LOW IN THE GULF IS CONSOLIDATING THE
PRECIPITATION AROUND IT AND MOVING MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY ONLY SEE
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE CLEARING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE THE OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AREAS.

OF NOTE WITH THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING
SEA IS THAT IT IS A WARM CORE RIDGE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THIS IS KEEPING A LARGE BLOCK OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION TO NEALY 5000 FT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL CREATE A SITUATION THAT WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND YUKON DELTA AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF A
SHOWERY NATURE AND NOT COVER A LARGE AREA. THE WARM AIR ALOFT ALSO
MAKES THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO CLEAR
OUT A LITTLE BIT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BIG WEATHER EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BERING SEA THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY AND THE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AFTER THAT.
THIS STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND RAIN TO TO THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. BEING ANOTHER WARM SYSTEM IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THAT AREA TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ NOV 12