Small Craft Advisory 795, NWS Anchorage, AK

955 
FZAK52 PAFC 060449 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...CORRECTED
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

CORRECTED ZONE 180

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY WED MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A WEATHER
FRONT FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TUE AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-061500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-061500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-061500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND NORTH AND WEST...N WIND
15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND EXCEPT
VARIABLE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-061500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT BY MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT PACIFIC SIDE...25 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 8 FT
BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-061500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-061500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

807 
FZAK52 PAFC 061241
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WED MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A
WEATHER FRONT FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS ON TUE AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES THROUGH
LATE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-070300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-070300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-070300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E OF DUTCH HARBOR...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. W OF DUTCH
HARBOR...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 
FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-070300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...E WIND 40 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 40 KT
BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...E
WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT 30 KT W OF SHEMYA. SEAS 12 FT BERING
SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-070300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-070300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
230 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY SHARP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING
OVER THE CENTER OF THE STATE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AS
OVERALL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE. A
WEAK 997 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY IS SUPPLYING THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COOK INLET REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. FURTHER WEST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING IS DRIFTING EASTWARD...GRADUALLY
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WHERE
MOST PLACES ARE SEEING COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS. A LARGE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WHERE
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR MODEL DISCREPANCIES THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL MODELS SHOW...AND CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS...A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE MAIN
TROUGH OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THIS LOW DEVELOPS IN
TIME TO CONVERT SOME OF THE AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION TONIGHT. THE NAM IS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW IN WEST ANCHORAGE WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE HILLSIDE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW BUT ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS THE NAM SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AND IS THE
ONLY STRONG MODEL PREFERENCE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH ANCHORAGE AND
PARTS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOCAL AREAS OF
STRONG WIND CONTINUE AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH GAPS IN
THE ALASKA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS ENROUTE TO THE COAST. THESE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
GULF LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS
RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANNELED
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS AS
RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALLOW STRONGER GUSTS TO MIX DOWN
FROM ALOFT AND INTERACT WITH GAPS IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS A BERING SEA FRONT EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AS A GALE FORCE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY EVENING AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AS WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS PROPEL THE LOW AND FRONT INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR THE ALASKA DOMAIN. THE MODERATE STRENGTH NORTH PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD NORTH AND BE ABSORBED
BY A STRONGER LOW DROPPING OUT OF RUSSIA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MAINLAND TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ALL THE LONG-RANGE MODELS QUICKLY REDEVELOP
THE LOW IN THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 170 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON NOV 12