Small Craft Advisory 777, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECASTS
GENERALLY USED THE 12Z NAM FOR ITS BETTER REPRESENTATION OF SMALL
SCALE/TERRAIN INDUCED FEATURES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR 46 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE AND 155 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW IS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST RUSSIA AND MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RUSSIAN LOW MOVES INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
MAINLY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
AND AREAS FROM ABOUT GLENNALLEN/VALDEZ EASTWARD FROM LATE MONDAY TO
LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ACT TO INCREASE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA...MAINLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN AND DOWN COOK INLET.

AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF DROPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCLUDE WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
IT LOOKS LIKE ANCHORAGE WILL STAY DRY AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER LOW GENERALLY HANGING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 12