Small Craft Advisory 774, NWS Anchorage, AK

950 
FZAK51 PAFC 282345
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291500-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST + KODIAK ISLAND WATERS + 
COOK INLET...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT.
A 1010 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR HOMER MON MORNING AND MOVE TO
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1004 MB LATE MON NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 994 MB BY TUE AFTERNOON 50 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING. 

$$

PKZ120-291500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-291500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-291500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING THE EVENING NEAR
WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.

.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-291500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-291500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-291500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1225 PM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO YESTERDAY WITH A TEXTBOOK REX BLOCK FIRMLY IN CONTROL. CLOSED
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. PACIFIC LOW BOTTOMED OUT
LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW SLOWLY WEAKENING. THUS...WINDS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW (ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA  AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS) HAVE PEAKED AND BEGUN TO DIMINISH. MEANWHILE WEAK UPPER
WAVES TRANSITING THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ARE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DOWNWARD MOTION AND RESULTANT STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS
PRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED GAP WINDS IN NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
OTHERWISE COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BREAKDOWN
OF REX BLOCK EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO
BE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF TROUGHS DROPPING OUT
OF THE ARCTIC AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF. NAM SEEMS TO BE INITIAL OUTLIER WITH MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND FASTER MOVEMENT...SO PREFER GFS/EC. BY TUESDAY
GFS BECOMES A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION...SO PREFER EC/NAM. IN ANY CASE...THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES
WON'T HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. MAIN CHANGES FOR TODAY
WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...REX BLOCK WILL HOLD IN FOR ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE PATTERN RAPIDLY CHANGES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A STRONG
ARCTIC TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA FORCING
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO QUICKLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO SIBERIA
WHILE A SPOKE OF THE RIDGE PUSHES DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN FORCES THE CURRENT LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC TO MAKE A QUICK EXIT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST U.S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON FORMATION OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SETTLE IN SOUTH OF
CAPE SUCKLING. BASED ON THIS POSITION THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
SNOW ARE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER BASIN...ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE...SO EXPECT ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL INITIALLY BRING MORE DRY AND COLD WEATHER.
THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS CAUSED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS AS COLD AIR ADVECTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO QUICKLY DEVELOP AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE BERING SEA...GULF OF ALASKA...AND
NORTH PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GROWS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC AND INTERACTS WITH A LOW CROSSING
THE NORTH PACIFIC. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THIS WILL DEVELOP INTO
A DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF.
HOWEVER...GFS IS NOTABLY DEEPER AND CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS LOW
TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND
TRACKS IT TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY LARGE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN EITHER SCENARIO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WINDS
AND PRECIP OVER THE GULF. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP US DRY AND
COLD. BOTTOM LINE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS STORM IS VERY LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 12