Small Craft Advisory 758, NWS Anchorage, AK

566 
FZAK51 PAFC 231125
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE REPLACED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF.

$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS 
TO 20 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...BARREN ISLANDS W...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 
SEAS 6 FT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

578 
FZAK51 PAFC 232312
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE REPLACED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT NEAR THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
2 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE STRONG PERSISTENT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO HOLD THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS LEAVING THE MAJORITY
OF TH SOUTHERN MAINLAND HIGH AND DRY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS SPREADING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THAT REGION UNDER THE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE. OFFSHORE GAP WINDS ARE
RAMPING BACK UP ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A
MINOR DIFFERENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THE LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TUE THOUGH THAT DIFFERENCE DOES NOT EQUATE TO MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE MAIN ISSUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
GAP WINDS. UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG WIND DOES EXIST THOUGH NOT AS
STRONG ANS THE PAST EVENT SATURDAY. WE STILL EXPECT STRONG WIND
HEADLINE LEVEL WIND FOR THE MAT-SU AND NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ALONG
WITH THESE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECT THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST
INTO MID WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE FRONT HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED TODAY OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY. THE ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WILL PUSH INLAND. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THOUGH EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO PERSIST IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS UNDER THE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
THE LOW NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS SPREADING RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT REGION. THE STRONG WIND AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT
AND BECOME THE MAIN LOW CENTER TUE NIGHT WELL SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT
LIKELY SPREAD TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PRETTY MUCH THE SAME INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR ALL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 172 185 412 413
         GALE 127 170 171 175 176 179 411 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SAM