Small Craft Advisory 725, NWS Anchorage, AK

025 
FZAK51 PAFC 111118
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW FORMING 470 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO AROUND
180 NM SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER AT 989 MB FRI MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A 984 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 230 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY FRI
MORNING AND DRIFT TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 978 MB SAT
MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-120300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40
KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-120300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-120300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-120300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS.  
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-120300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-120300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS DID A GOOD JOB OF INITIALIZING THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO DO
A BETTER JOB ESPECIALLY WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHILE THE GFS WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE LOW
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECASTS TODAY WILL BE BASED MAINLY ON
THE ECMWF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
CANADA BY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS WEAKENING QUICKLY BUT STILL
HAS AN AXIS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND UP INTO EASTERN RUSSIA. AT
THE SURFACE THE PACIFIC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST AND MERGES WITH A SECOND
PACIFIC LOW MOVING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC FORMING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG FINALLY MIXED OUT OVER THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE BOWL TODAY BUT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. IT SHOULD MAINLY BE
CONFINED ALONG COOK INLET AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION COMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM A SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH BUT THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.

ALEUTIANS/BERING...
THE ALEUTIANS REMAIN UNDER A BROAD EASTERLY FLOW. AS THE NEXT LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC EXPECT RAIN SPREADING OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE FIRST COLD DUMP OF ARCTIC AIR THIS YEAR. THE COLD AIR
PUSH COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF HAS
THE LOOK OF A WINTER-LIKE PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 12