Small Craft Advisory 717, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 8, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 9, 2012, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

571 
FZAK52 PAFC 082322
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BERING TUE AFTERNOON. A 996 MB LOW 340 NM SOUTHWEST OF
ATTU WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST OF ATTU AT 989 MB EARLY TUE
EVENING...THEN DRIFT BACK TO NEAR 340 SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-091500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT EARLY MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ165-091500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-091500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SOUTH AND EAST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-091500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. EAST OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. VARIABLE WIND 10 KT WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST
OF ATKA...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT EAST OF 180. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-091500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-091500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN IN THE
EVENING.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 8, 2:20 PM AKDT, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
220 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AK IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A FRONT WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHCENTRAL AK YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL
INLAND TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE AND IS WEAKENING...THOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. WITH THE LOSS OF STEADY PRECIPITATION AND WATER LEVELS
FALLING ACROSS AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...THE FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE
EXPIRING THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT HAS USHERED IN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH FREEZING LEVELS OF 8000 TO
10000 FEET POKING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AK CORROBORATED BY SOUNDINGS.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE GULF HIGH PRESSURE COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND STRONG INVERSIONS HAVE SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND HAVE
ENVELOPED COOK INLET UP THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEYS. SOME MOISTURE HAS
POKED THROUGH GAPS IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND SPILLED OVER INTO
BRISTOL BAY AS WELL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT'S WESTERN PORTION EXTENDS THROUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA AND POINTS WEST INTO THE NORTHCENTRAL
BERING...AND CONTINUES MOVING WEST SPREADING RAIN ALONG WITH IT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE
CHUKCHI SEA...WITH A SQUEEZED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITSELF AND
THE FRONT SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
ALSO OF NOTE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AROUND 350 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA DRIFTING NORTHEAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE OVERALL PICTURE. IN THE
EAST...THE UPPER-LVL RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS DEPICTED WEAKENING MID
WEEK AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES DOWN ALONG IT'S EASTERN FLANK
WHILE A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC PUSHES AGAINST IT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE GULF OF AK ON
WED...IT'S NORTHWARD PROGRESSION THEREAFTER SHUNTED BY THE RESIDUAL
AND WEAKENED UPPER-RIDGE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN AK IS DEPICTED SWINGING ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW THE
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOLING OFF CONSIDERABLY. AT 850
MB...TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND 6 TO 9 CELSIUS TONIGHT AND DROP TO NEAR
0 CELSIUS AT A COMMENSURATE TIME WED NIGHT. THE NAM APPEARS SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN THE BALLPARK.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST PACKAGE CLOSE TO THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND THE GULF OF AK.

OUT WEST...THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING TRACKS TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BERING TUE AFTERNOON. THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
CHAIN IS DEPICTED REACHING PEAK INTENSITY TUE NIGHT...AND SHOWN
MEANDERING IN THE GENERAL VICINITY 150 TO 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA THROUGH WED NIGHT. ON THU...THE GFS AND ECWMF DEPICT ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKING TO AROUND 300 MILES SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI. THE
NAM ALSO SHOWS THIS SYSTEM...BUT POSITIONS IT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS. HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE BERING/CHAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
FOG AND STRATUS LOOKS TO KEEP A FOOTHOLD OVER THE GULF ON UP THROUGH
COOK INLET/MAT-SU VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF
THE ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE PEAKS TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ITSELF
BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN WITH TIME. THE UP INLET LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWN INLET AND THE ACCOMPANYING INVERSIONS ERODE AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BLEED DOWN FROM THE INTERIOR. THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN OFF-SHORE FLOW GAP WINDS FOR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND KENAI PENINSULA...HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. AS SUCH
EXPECTING FAIR AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TO BECOME PREDOMINANT ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN THE COMING DAYS. A CAVEAT WILL BE ALONG
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE ENERGY FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TUE INTO WED.
ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST...
WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING
OFF TONIGHT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY. RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO STILL SUPPORT SOME AREAS OF FOG INTO TUE. AS THE RIDGE IN
THE GULF WEAKENS...A SMALL CUT-OFF UPPER HIGH SETS UP OVER NW BRISTOL
BAY...WITH DRIER OFF-SHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD ENABLE AREAS
OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TO ALSO SEE MARKEDLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AS
WELL IN THE COMING DAYS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
INITIAL GALES IN THE BERING LOOK TO WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE HOWEVER
KEEPING THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS IN THE THICK OF HIGH RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS CHANCES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR FILTERING DOWN FROM
NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE BERING STRAIT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP A COOL AND GENERALLY DRY REGIME ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND A COOL SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE CHAIN/BERING.
STORM TRACK INITIALLY IS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN...BUT BY LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY TREND MORE TOWARDS THE GULF OF AK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...180 185 411 412
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.