Small Craft Advisory 694, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 302305
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1009 MB LOW CURRENTLY 130 NM EAST OF KODIAK WEAKENS TO 1014 MB AND
MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
DISSIPATES MON MORNING. A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED 460 NM SOUTHWEST OF
PORT ALEXANDER MOVES TO DIXON ENTRANCE BY SUN NIGHT WITH A PRESSURE
OF 1005 MB. A DEVELOPING 1005 MB LOW MOVES TO 780 NM SOUTH OF COLD
BAY MON AFTERNOON AND THEN TO KODIAK ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON WITH A
PRESSURE OF 1003 MB.

$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.TONIGHT... N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 
KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT EXCEPT
4 FT NEAR HICHINBROOK ENTRANCE. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 
FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING IS
BEGINNING TO SPLIT INTO TWO SMALLER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE MOVING
NORTH TOWARDS THE INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SECOND
MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN INTO THE
PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING NEAR SITKA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
QUICKLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH
TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. FAST WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL IMMEDIATELY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND BRING A
STEADY STREAM OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEGINNING
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF A POWERFUL WEST
PACIFIC TYPHOON WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GULF TODAY INTO SUNDAY. OUT WEST...THERE
ARE SOME ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE SPLIT
FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WOULD
POTENTIALLY MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE EASTERN BERING
BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL USE A MODEL
BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES UNTIL THEY CAN GRAB A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SPLIT FLOW.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT THUS FAR IN THE MOVEMENT
OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF A CURRENT WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO BELOW 1500 FEET...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS GIVEN
THAT IT IS STILL SEPTEMBER AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
RELATIVELY WARM. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN AND SNOW TODAY
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT IN TOWN...BUT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
JUST OUTSIDE THE CITY.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL (EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND) WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE MORE HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS...RESULTING
IN A HARD FREEZE. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BY
MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH A DISTURBANCE PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER INLAND PARTS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN CAPES
OF BRISTOL BAY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF OF NORTHERN KAMCHATKA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING...AND
THEN MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN BERING BY MONDAY. A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG ITS FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THEN ENTER THE EASTERN BERING WHILE WEAKENING
ON TUESDAY. RAIN AND LOW-END GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE REMNANTS OF A STRONG TYPHOON
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF JAPAN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE BERING AND BECOME STATIONARY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE BERING AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHWEST PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND
PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING...121 125
MARINE...GALES...160 179 172 175 176 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC SEP 12