Small Craft Advisory 692, NWS Anchorage, AK

721 
FZAK52 PAFC 291414 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
615 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

CORRECTED ZONE 170

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300300-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A LOW OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA INTENSIFIES TO 989 MB SUN MORNING 325
NM NORTH OF ATTU AND THEN WEAKENS TO 994 MB SUN NIGHT 200 NM WEST OF
SAINT PAUL. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING SAT
AFTERNOON AND REACHES WESTERN ALASKA SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. W
OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-300300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF 160W. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT 6 FT
W OF 160W. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT EXCEPT 20 KT W OF 160W IN THE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
  

$$

PKZ165-300300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 DECREASING TO 10 KT EXCEPT W WIND 10 KT W OF
PORT MOLLER. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-300300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 4
FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...BERING SIDE...SW WIND 25 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-300300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING
TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-300300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-300300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

629 
FZAK52 PAFC 292312
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301500-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR NORTHERN KAMCHATKA INTENSIFIES TO 986 MB SUN
MORNING 350 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND THEN WEAKENS TO 992
MB MON AFTERNOON 95 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. A NORTHWEST
PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 998 MB 360 NM SOUTH OF ATTU ISLAND SUN
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 85 NM EAST OF ATKA AT 999 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-301500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...WEST OF 160W...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. EAST OF 160W...S
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...WEST OF 160W...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. EAST OF 160W...S WIND
20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-301500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT EAST OF PORT
MOLLER. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-301500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. WIND BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST 
OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-301500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-301500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS
9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-301500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE...WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS CUT OFF LOW CORRELATES WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT THAT WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST TO THE WEST OFF THIS TROUGH WITH THE JET STREAM REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE LOW IS IN THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SATURDAY.
A STRONG RIDGE IS CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE BERING SEA AND ITS
POSITION COMBINED WITH THAT OF THE LOW IN UPPER COOK INLET IS
BRINGING STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS TO MUCH OF THE BERING SEA REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING QUITE WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM FAVORED THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IN THE LONER RANGE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE FOR
THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS DROPPING THE FREEZING
LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND THE 1000 FT
LEVEL OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
OR ABOVE 1000 FT AS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE WET AND WILL ALSO
NOT BE CONTINUOUS. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY REACH THE GROUND AT SEA LEVEL
BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 1000 FT.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND
ALEUTIAN RANGE.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...AND BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND GUTSY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A RIDGE MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AMPLIFIES IN THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THIS DEVELOPMENT BEARS WATCHING AS IT IS THE PATTERN THAT HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF SEPTEMBER. IT WILL LIKELY BRING
IN WINDS, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 121 125.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 12