Small Craft Advisory 681, NWS Anchorage, AK

897 
FZAK52 PAFC 252339
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 MB LOW 110 NM NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COLD BAY AT THE SAME STRENGTH BY LATE TUE NIGHT. A 977
MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK TUE EVENING WILL ABSORB THE FIRST LOW
AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 952 MB 125 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WED
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 972 MB 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
BERING LATE TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-261500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 19 FT
EXCEPT NW OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-261500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO VARIABLE 15 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-261500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-261500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-261500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND NE WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...NE WIND
20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-261500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW WIND 35 KT LATE EVENING.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM UNALASKA E. SEAS 19 FT
BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-261500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-261500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO NW WIND 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-261500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.

.WED...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-261500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-261500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-261500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT MON SEP 24 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. THE NAM
IS FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE/FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL TOMORROW...WHICH HAS AN IMPACT ON THE
ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE. HAVE OPTED FOR
MORE OF A SLOWER GFS/EC SOLUTION THAT DEVELOPS A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE MAJOR LOW THAT DEVELOPS MIDWEEK
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF...HOWEVER ALL MODELS
AGREE ON THE SAME BASIC PATTERN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE AFTERNOON
WEATHER MAP IS A LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WITH A BROAD ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A VIGOROUS JET STREAM IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS BETWEEN 40N AND 45N LATITUDE. THIS JET STREAM IS PUSHING
THE FRONT RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW...AND SECONDARY/TRIPLE POINT
LOW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
FURTHER NORTH...THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS LOW ARE RAPIDLY BECOMING
A DISTANT MEMORY AS ALL THAT REMAINS ARE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DISSIPATE...LIKELY DUE TO SUCH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE LAST STORM
AND THE NEXT ONE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND MOVES
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO
ABOUT 980 MB OVERNIGHT AND CURVE WESTWARD AS IT ABSORBS THE ENERGY
FROM THE CURRENTLY LOW IN THE BERING. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE FRONT THIS LOW SENDS TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST
TOMORROW...AND SPECIFICALLY WHAT ORIENTATION THE FRONT HAS AS IT
PIVOTS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE NAM IS TOO FAST MOVING THE UPPER WAVE THROUGH...WHICH WOULD
HAVE BROUGHT THE FULL BRUNT OF THE FRONTAL WINDS INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. INSTEAD...THINK THE WORST OF THE FRONTAL ENERGY WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE COAST AND CURVE BACK ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
THIS ALSO HAS RAMIFICATIONS FOR POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL WINDS NEAR
PORTAGE AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE
WATCH AS-IS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
REGARDLESS...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGIONS...WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND.

SOUTHWEST...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH GAPS IN THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO EAST WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CENTERS STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WITH ACTIVE STORM TRACK SHIFTING EASTWARD
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS COOL AIR STREAMS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. IN
GENERAL...A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR MOST LOCATIONS AROUND
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...MORE STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOW CHANGED TO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG LOWS...BUT LOWS THAT GENERALLY STAY CONTAINED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP MOST RAINFALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH THE
MORE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN RANGES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WILL START TO WORK INTO MAINLAND ALASKA AS THE STORM TRACK
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 121 125 145
         FLOOD ADVISORY 101 141
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 130
         GALE WARNING 129 132 138 140 125 150 155 160 170 172 175 179
                      180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON SEP 12