Small Craft Advisory 65, NWS Anchorage, AK

476 
FZAK51 PAFC 221233
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 963 MB LOW 120 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 90 NM WEST
OF KODIAK CITY AND WEAKEN 979 MB LATE TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE MON
MORNING. A 977 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING LATE TONIGHT 
WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK CITY BY LATE MON NIGHT AT 972 MB. 
$$

PKZ120-230300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-230300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-230300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-230300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-230300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-230300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-230300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-230300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-230300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1145 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG BLOCKING HIGH OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA IS SINKING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN
BERING SEA WHILE A STRONG SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM IS BEING PULLED NORTH AND WEST TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL AS SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
IN FACT MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR IS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RETURNS FROM
MIDDLETON ISLAND EASTWARD. OFFSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
FOR THE MOMENT IN CORDOVA...BUT EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARE TRENDING
SLOWLY DOWNWARD AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN AND UPPER FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...
COLDER AIR INLAND IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
GAPS. ARCTIC AIR IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST WHERE WIDE OPEN SPACE IS ALLOWING FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THIS
AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING
SEA THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOTABLE DIFFERENCES ARISE ON TUESDAY WITH
SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE GULF. THERE ARE
TWO CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEMGLB SHOW A 960S MB LOW
MOVING TO THE FAR EASTERN GULF WHILE THE GFS/NAM SHOW A 940S LOW
TRACKING FURTHER WEST. WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND ARCTIC
AIR FEEDING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TEND TO BELIEVE THE
STRONGER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
GFS ENSEMBLE AND CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED OFF THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL STICK CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
KODIAK ISLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WHICH WILL BE PULLED WESTWARD BY THE
ROTATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE LOW WILL HELP SPREAD SNOW WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE COAST. WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICAL FORCING ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS INLAND WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

AS UPPER LOW CONTORTS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY
EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND MORE LIGHT
SNOW TO SPREAD TO THE COAST. FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTH INLAND
AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW.
ULTIMATELY IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD END UP IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES IN. THIS WILL
PRODUCE VERY WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 55 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
IN SOME PLACES. ONCE THE WINDS DIE DOWN ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL EVEN FURTHER WITH -30 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY
BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BRING AND END TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVER THE EASTERN BERING...EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR ARRIVES AND THE SNOW MAKING MACHINE THAT IS THE BERING SEA KICKS
INTO HIGH GEAR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADIER SNOW AND
LOW VISIBILITIES THAN IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH RUN OF THE MILL
COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS. THUS...THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY WEAKER AS COLD
ADVECTION WEAKENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WAVES MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BLOCKING HIGH WILL CAUSE IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY BROADEN AND COVER THE BERING SEA BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW THAT MOVES TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY SIT THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK AND WORK WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY LARGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 181.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...127 130 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 125 126 127 128 130 132
                                        138 140 141 150 155 165 170
                                        171 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 12