Small Craft Advisory 644, NWS Anchorage, AK

778 
FZAK51 PAFC 112339
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE NEAR MONTAGUE
ISLAND EARLY WED MORNING THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
GULF WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-121500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-121500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...GUSTS TO 35 
KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-121500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-121500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING  SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-121500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-121500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-121500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND... NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-121500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 11 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON TODAY'S
WEATHER MAP HAS A RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WITH A TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THERE IS ALSO A 90
TO 100 KT JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW IS WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE.
BEHIND THIS LOW THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FLOW BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST AND THE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEM TO BE PERFORMING RELATIVELY WELL IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM PUSHES A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
KODIAK TUESDAY FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN DO THE GFS OR ECMWF MODELS.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INDICATES THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTION THAT THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEING THE MORE PROBABLE ONE. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF MODEL MOVE THIS SYSTEM MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND THERE
IS A DIFFERENCE OF NEARLY 500 MILES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ORIENTATION OF THE JET STREAM AND
OVERALL FLOW AROUND THE LOW IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE GULF.
WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
INCREASE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY AND THEN SEE THE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF INTO SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD NORTHWEST JET
STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.THIS PATTERN SHOULD GIVE SOME
RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS OF THE GULF AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS HARD TO SEE CLEARLY DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES DISCUSSED EARLIER. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
WORTH WATCHING MOST OF THE WEEK SINCE IT WILL BRING IN SOME VERY
RAINY WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS TO SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE
CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS TO PINPOINT THE AREAS OF STRONGEST IMPACT
AND THE TIMING OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 12