Small Craft Advisory 618, NWS Anchorage, AK

893 
FZAK52 PAFC 021157
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 55 NM SOUTH OF SAINT GEORGE INTENSIFIES TO 980 MB SUN
EVENING AS IT MOVES TO 90 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM...THEN MOVES
INLAND AT THE MOUTH OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER LATE MON MORNING WHILE
WEAKENING TO 985 MB. A 999 MB LOW 365 NM WEST OF ATTU ISLAND SUN
AFTERNOON INTENSIFIES TO 982 MB 90 NM WEST OF ATTU ISLAND SUN
NIGHT...THEN STRENGTHENS FURTHER TO 971 MB 125 NM NORTH OF ADAK MON
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
506 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THERE ARE TWO CENTERS OF ACTION ON THE WEATHER MAP TODAY. THE FIRST
IS LOCATED OVER THE BERING STRAIT REGION WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. A CUT-OFF LOW WILL FORM FROM
THIS TROUGH TODAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE OVER
YAKUTAT THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...THE MAIN CENTER OF ACTION
WILL MEANDER WEST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SECOND PRIMARY SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOW A MUCH STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MONDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
BERING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE DAY MAY NEED TO BE MADE IN
CLEARING OUT THE COOK INLET REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OTHERWISE...ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DESPITE
MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES MODELS ARE ALL IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A VERY WET AND SOGGY PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

MAIN CONCERN IS THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IMPENDING
CUT-OFF LOW IN THE GULF TODAY. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ONLY SLOWLY
CRAWL THIS FEATURE TO THE EAST...SO THAT IT APPEARS ANCHORAGE AND THE
REST OF THE COOK INLET REGION MAY NOT SEE A TOTAL END TO THE LIGHT
RAIN AND OVERCAST SKIES UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE COOK INLET REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL MORE IN SUCCESSION BEFORE THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
STRONG WIND CRITERIA THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF ANCHORAGE AS SURFACE RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...WITH MAINLY DOWNSLOPE DRYING OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH RANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS
A RETURN OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE BOWL MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINLY KEEP A LID ON WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO
THE REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO STEADY
RAIN THE AREA...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING MOVES EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOLID GALES ARE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE AND THEN
MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

STRONG LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL
HELP TO DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WET THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERHAPS A GRADUAL DRYING TREND BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 155 170 172 175 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC SEP 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

AKZ145-022230-

A VERY MOIST NORTH PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO THE UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE YENTNA AND
SKWENTNA RIVER BASINS. IN RESPONSE THE YENTNA RIVER ROSE 1.9 FEET
NEAR THE LAKE CREEK CONFLUENCE. SMALLER STREAMS INCLUDING MOOSE AND
KROTO CREEK WENT UP OVER 1 FOOT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS FORECAST THROUGH LABOR
DAY AND ADDITIONAL WATER LEVEL RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE YENTNA AND
LOWER SUSITNA RIVERS. A CREST NEAR BANKFULL LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE MONDAY FOR THE LOWER YENTNA RIVER WITH WATER LEVELS
REMAINING HIGH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

PEOPLE INVOLVED WITH OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS. BE
PREPARED TO QUICKLY MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED RIVERS AND STREAMS. TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.

DS