Small Craft Advisory 587, NWS Anchorage, AK

105 
FZAK51 PAFC 241500 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

UPDATED FOR 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250300-
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 1006 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL MOVE
TO 520 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT LATE TONIGHT AT 1008 MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING AND
REMAIN THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-250300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
700 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-250300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT.
HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-250300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-250300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-250300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-250300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-250300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.  
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-250300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-250300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

303 
FZAK51 PAFC 242341
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW 380 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF SUN.
$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...VARIABLE WIND 10
KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT THU AUG 23 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A NEW UPPER LOW WHICH DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA LAST NIGHT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HELPED FORM A NEW SURFACE LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND LATE LAST NIGHT
WHICH HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. A STRONG WEATHER OVER
THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE CENTRAL
GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR HAS KEPT THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY IN AREAS OF
RAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL BERING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS HANDLED. THE NAM AND ECWMF
MODELS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WHILE THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO KODIAK ISLAND. BASED ON SATELLITE AND
SURFACE WIND DATA, THE NAM/ECWMF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE CORRECT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA
SATURDAY WHILE A UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL SETUP A STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER THE BERING
SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE AREAS OF RAIN
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
RAIN OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL BECOME NUMEROUS SHOWERS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE RAIN
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE AREAS OF RAIN OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT WEST WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
KEEP AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS SATURDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE BERING WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT. A LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN BETTER THROUGH THE MID RANGE PERIOD.
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO
THE YUKON DELTA SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHCENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
MORE RAIN INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM AUG 12