Small Craft Advisory 582, NWS Anchorage, AK

753 
FZAK51 PAFC 222354
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR CHIGNIK WILL STRENGTHEN TO 1003 MB 50 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HOMER THU AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 1010 MB 220 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND
25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT W OF CAPE CLEARE. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N LESS THAN 10 KT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THROUGH FRI AND EVEN SAT.
ALL MODELS BRING THE FIRST BERING LOW ONSHORE NEAR THE YUKON DELTA
LATE WED WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FORMING A CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THU. THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF.  THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONG LOW TO THE BERING STRAIT AND FRONT
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY LATE FRI.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE FIRST IS
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND TROUGH EXTENDING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL.  THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL BE
OVER THE PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE TROUGH.

THE SECOND SYSTEM IS A MODERATELY STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA REACHING THE YUKON DELTA BY WED AFTERNOON AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY THU AFTERNOON.  RAIN FROM THIS LOW IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
REST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH CENTRAL WED NIGHT.

THE NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER AND TO TRACK FARTHER NORTH
CENTERING NEAR THE BERING STRAIT ON FRI.  STRONG WINDS AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD OVER THE WEST COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THIS STORM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH CENTRAL...

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TUE
NIGHT.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL THU
NIGHT AND EARLY WED.  AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY DUE TO CLEARING SKIES
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WED MORNING.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE COOK INLET REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THU MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

RAIN WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND WED.  BREAKS IN THE RAIN
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THU UNDER A FAST MOVING RIDGE.  RAIN WILL
AGAIN MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE BERING
ON FRI.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHAIN TONIGHT COVERING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY NOON WED. THE CHAIN AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
EXPERIENCE DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE WED AND THU UNDER A RIDGE
BUILDING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM. RAIN FROM THE FRI STORM MAY
STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CHAIN AND BRING RAIN TO THE PRIBILOFS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE PATH OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK
THROUGH MID WEEK.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER TO THIS WEEK...RAINY DAYS
WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN AS THE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH AUG 12